It was interesting to see the reaction on social media and by some of my fellow media types to the latest Ontario poll that showed Patrick Brown‘s Progressive Conservative party with a significant lead over the governing Liberals as we head toward a provincial election in June.
I can certainly understand how polling results can create a euphoric buzz if they show that your preferred candidate is likely to win, but I think that we have to take polling results with a grain of salt.
READ MORE: Majority of Ontario residents believe it’s time for leadership change at Queen’s Park: poll
Former prime minister John Diefenbaker once said that dogs had the right idea on how to treat poles; Dief’s observation may have been a little harsh, but I can understand his skepticism.
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If we were to believe what pollsters have told us, the Ontario PCs would have won the last two provincial elections, Stephen Harper would still be prime minister, Hillary Clinton would be U.S. president and the Leafs would win the Stanley Cup every year.
Polling results depend on so many variables:
- Who actually answers the phone?
- Are cellphones included?
- What questions are asked?
- Maybe most importantly, does a phone poll of 1,000 respondents in a province with a population of 13.5 million people really represent public opinion?
Do we rely too much on polls?
As one longtime political observer noted: the only reason we have elections now is to find out if the pollsters were right.
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