With one day to go before Americans cast their ballots, the final opinion polls suggest the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is still a tight one – making election night a perfect setup for waging bets.
Online betting sites from around the world are getting in on the action, with some saying the Nov. 8 election stands to be the biggest-drawing political event ever.
Betfair, a U.K.-based online forum (that isn’t available to Canadians), told Reuters that by Sunday, roughly $130 million USD (or $173.8 million CAD) had been wagered on who will become the next U.S. president.
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June’s Brexit referendum, by comparison, saw $159 million USD ($212.5 million CAD) laid down while the 2012 U.S. presidential race only brought in roughly $50 million USD ($66.8 million CAD), a spokeswoman told Reuters.
But bettors can put their money down on much more than just the coveted presidency.
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Gamblers on sites like Manitoba’s Play Now or Ireland’s Paddy Power can place bets on (all odds according to Paddy Power):
- Whether Trump will sever ties with the Republican party before the end of the month (4-to-1 odds)
- Whether Bernie Sanders will form a new party before the end of the year (9-to-1 odds)
- Whether Trump will form a new party before the end of the year (9-to-1 odds)
- Whether Trump will come away from election night without a single state (250-to-1 odds)
- Whether electoral college votes will tie for Trump and Clinton (40-to-1 odds)
- And whether James Comey will still be the FBI director in 2018 (“no” has 8-to-11 odds, “yes” is even)
Paddy Power hasn’t forgotten Trump’s promise to keep us “in suspense” about his intention to concede the election should he lose. Bettors can wage on a six different time slots up to and including “before midnight” and “after midnight.”
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The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton with a five percentage point lead over Trump in the national survey — 44 per cent to 39 per cent. Races in swing states of Florida and North Carolina, however, shifted from Clinton’s control to being too close to call.
The final CBS News poll, meanwhile, showed a four-point spread with Clinton with leading 45 per cent to Trump’s 41 per cent.
A would-be bettor will probably want to research more than just the latest polls. For one, different online betting sites offer different odds (Bodog, a Canadian Vegas-style site, is offering -550 odds on a Clinton win and +375 odds on a Trump win).
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Polling aggregators like Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight can help put all the data into context so the political gamblers can make safe bets.
Beyond its primary calculation indicating Clinton has a 65.5 per cent chance of winning, fivethirtyeight.com offers a list of “crazy and not-so-crazy” scenarios that could arise from tomorrow’s vote.
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Their analysis indicates a 1.2 per cent chance the electoral college will end without either candidate getting the necessary 270 votes to win, and a mere 0.8 per cent chance Trump and Clinton will tie for electoral college votes (each candidate gets 269).
The most likely scenario listed in the potentially crazy outcomes is that Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012; he apparently has an 87.4 per cent chance of that happening. On the other side, Clinton has only a 65.3 per cent chance of winning a state Republican nominee Mitt Romney won in the last election.
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— With files from Reuters
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