TORONTO – By 2040, Toronto will see less snow in the winter, more rain in the summer and fewer but more extreme storms, according to a new study.
A $250,000 study commissioned by the Toronto Environment Office and conducted by SENES Consultants Ltd., analyzed current weather models and tried to predict what the weather will be like three decades from today.
There will be fewer storms overall, however they will be much more extreme, according to the study.
“We’re going to be having more intensive storms, which we’ve seen the last few years and they’re going to continue, and we’re going to have heat waves in the summer,” Lawson Oates of the Toronto Environment Office said. “These of course have major considerations for maintaining and providing public infrastructure and also our vulnerable populations.”
The report also suggests that rainfall in July and August may increase drastically in the coming decades with increases of 80 per cent, and 50 per cent respectively.
The needs of Toronto’s infrastructure may need to change in the coming decades as less snow is predicted.
Infrastructure is built to handle weather extremes and SENES consultants write in the report that weather predictions allow cities to build infrastructure that can handle predicted extremes.
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“The operation of critical infrastructure such as the electrical grid, water treatment plants, sewers and culverts, public transport and roads are sensitive to particular temperature and weather thresholds,” according to the SENES report. “Beyond these thresholds infrastructure may have reduced capacity or may not function at all.”
However Oates says that city officials have already started to work on minimizing possible damage to Toronto’s infrastructure.
“The traffic controllers that manage streetlights, we’ve introduced fans into those,” Oates said. “So when they get warm under summer temperatures, the fans come on to help cool them and that keeps those traffic controllers in service. Many of the things we can do are low cost.”
Oates also noted that city officials consider the effects of climate change in all public projects.
For those who hate Toronto’s winter, the SENES report predicts that the average temperature will increase along with a decrease in the number of snow days.
The daily minimum temperature in the 2040s will be one degree warmer, and the daily maximum temperature will increase by 7.6 degrees Celsius.
But warmer temperatures not only pose a risk to infrastructure but also people.
“There’s the vulnerable populations, homeless people, seniors, children and impacts on infrastructure where we can actually have some infrastructure fail under heat stress,” Oates said.
The warmer temperatures will bring less snow, the study suggests, predicting that in the 2040s Toronto can expect 26 fewer snow days a year, with nine less in December.
The study blames climate change for the increasing number of extreme weather events.
Extreme weather events, superstorm Sandy included, have become more frequent over the last decade and can have a severe economic impact on the city.
In August 2005, a one-hour rainstorm cost the city of Toronto approximately $47 million in repairs after the Finch Avenue culvert collapsed and washed away.
The SENES report will be circulated to select city officials for consideration in future projects.
A summary of changes comparing 2000-2009 and 2040-2049:
• Less snow in the winter with 26 fewer snow days per year.
• Slightly more snow and rain overall
• Increased rainfall in July (80 per cent) and August (50 per cent)
• Fewer, but more severe, rainstorms
• Average annual temperatures increases of 4.4 degrees Celsius
• Average winter temperature increases of 5.7 degrees Celsius
• Average summer temperature increases of 3.8 degrees Celsius
• The extreme daily minimum temperature “becomes less cold” by 1 degree Celsius
• The extreme daily maximum temperature “becomes warmer” by 7.6 degrees Celsius
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