With less than two weeks to go before voters head to the polls, it’s worth asking whether the perceived front runner at the beginning of this long election campaign can find a way to be competitive again.
I’m referring, of course, to Tom Mulcair and the federal NDP. The heady days of late July and early August, when they enjoyed the rare status of topping pretty well every opinion poll, seem long ago.
READ MORE: NDP continues decline as Tories, Liberals battle for first in new Ipsos poll
Now, the party has taken itself out of a seemingly tight three-way race. It has slumped in the vitally important and riding-rich provinces of Quebec and Ontario, and now runs the risk of being leap-frogged by Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, a seemingly unthought-of scenario just a few weeks ago.
The party still appears to be strong in B.C., but the Conservatives also seem ready to protect most of their turf here and it is the federal Liberals who may gain the most at the Conservatives’ expense — not necessarily the New Democrats.
So what the heck happened?
First of all, Trudeau’s outside-the-box announcement that he would abandon balanced budgets in the short term in favor of billions of dollars in stimulus spending for infrastructure caught the NDP flat-footed.
With Mulcair already firmly committed to bringing in balanced budgets, Trudeau’s move not only separated himself from the other two leaders, but he effectively shackled Mulcair to Harper’s side when it comes to budgeting.
As a result, even though the two of course differ widely on any number of issues, Mulcair’s cautious stay-the-course approach left him open to being labeled “Harper Light.”
But a bigger reason for the NDP’s slide can be found in Quebec.
The Conservatives have relentlessly pushed its ban on wearing the niqab during citizenship ceremonies, a vote-determining issue really only in Quebec, which unfortunately for the NDP is the province that is home to most of the party’s seats.
Mulcair has been lauded by many for saying the wearing of the niqab during citizenship ceremonies is a matter of personal choice, even though that position is widely unpopular among Quebeckers (who overwhelming support the ban) and perhaps more than any other issue has led to NDP’s major slump in the polls.
And rebuilding hopes in Quebec is likely behind Mulcair’s risky move to oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a massive free trade deal involving Canada and 11 other nations.
READ MORE: NDP slips to third as Tories lead latest seat projections
Mulcair announced the NDP would oppose the pact without even seeing its details. While opposing the deal seems aimed directly at appeasing Quebec dairy farmers, who may be adversely affected by it, blocking a free trade deal doesn’t seem to be reflective of Mulcair’s determination to modernize the party’s economic philosophy.
While slumping fortunes in Quebec have been the NDP’s biggest problem, it has not been helped by a surprising good campaign by Trudeau and by a well-defined but almost grossly cynical campaign by Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.
And Mulcair hasn’t been helped by sniping by his own side at his attempts to shift the party more to the political centre. Veteran lefty journo Rick Salutin penned a stinging attack on him in the Toronto Star recently, and the far left crowd (having seemingly escaped from a 1960s commune via a time warp) released what they called the “Leap Manifesto”, which among other things calls for the remaking of the capitalist system.
Of course, there are still almost two weeks left in the federal campaign so there is still time for Mulcair to pull things together and regain the momentum he appeared to have at the beginning of the campaign. But every day becomes more precious now, and that remaining time can disappear very quickly.
And for now, what was once a tight three-way race seemingly being led by the NDP has become a two-party affair, with the NDP relegated to the status it was mired in for decades: third place.
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