A new poll released Friday suggests Olivia Chow is holding a 9 per cent lead over Brad Bradford in Toronto’s mayoral contest.
The Pollara Strategic Insights’ survey indicates the incumbent leads her main challenger 55 per cent to 44 per cent among decided voters, including those who have already voted.
Other polls, however, suggest there is no clear favourite.
Several polls recently have put Bradford slightly ahead of Chow. Others still place her ahead of Bradford – including a Pollara survey released Tuesday – indicating a very tight race, according to the research firms that publish the polls.
A Liaison Strategies survey released Wednesday puts Bradford at 49 per cent support and Chow at 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with three per cent choosing someone else.
In this most recent poll, Chow has lost a five-point lead she had in a Liaison Strategies poll published Oct. 13.
Another poll published Tuesday by Mainstreet Research put Bradford’s support at 48.9 per cent and Chow at a “nearly equal” 47.5 per cent.
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Both candidates have been hitting the pavement daily in the final week before the Oct. 26 election to reach those precious undecided voters who may push the vote slightly more on either side.
Pollara’s online poll from Friday suggests 48 per cent of respondents have positive feelings about Chow, while only 36 per cent feel the same about Bradford.
It also shows Chow leading Bradford on working with other levels of government, affordability, safety, and taxes, but voters are split on which candidate will bring change or best serve the economy and jobs.
The poll was commissioned by CUPE Local 416 (Toronto Civic Employees’ Union). On Oct. 1, the union formally endorsed Chow as its preferred candidate.
Chow is looking to secure her first full term after winning the 2023 mayoral byelection, while Bradford is seeking to become Toronto’s sixth mayor since amalgamation on Jan. 1, 1998.
Between Oct. 16 and 21, Pollara conducted a hybrid online and telephone survey of 1,094 Toronto residents aged 18 and older who are eligible to vote: 697 online panel completes and 397 live telephone interviews. Data was weighted to reflect the age, gender and regional composition of Toronto’s adult population, based on the most recent census figures. While online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error, a probability sample of this size would be accurate to ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20. Vote results include those who have already voted at the advance polls (26%) and were asked how they voted.
Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from Oct. 18 to Oct. 19, 2026, using conventional phone and Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters.
Mainstreet Research conducted its survey between Oct. 16 and Oct. 18, 2026 with a sample size of 1,000 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using conventional phone Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
The Pollara Strategic Insights survey was fielded Oct. 13 to 19, 2026. It surveyed Toronto residents aged 18+ eligible to vote (695 online panel, 404 live telephone). It was weighted to census data by gender, age and region. It states that “because the sample includes an online panel, no margin of error applies”. A probability sample of 1,099 would carry a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and more for subgroups. Subgroups with an unweighted base under 100 should be read with caution, it says.
We need change in all levels of government in Canada.
You know its desperat times when comments outright lie.
Cities in Ontario don’t run deficits. They legally have to run balanced budgets.
Bradford isn’t privatizing water.
@David Best We aren’t panicking, cupcake. Chow’s been leading the entire time. The media loves the horse race. Chow’s cut Toronto deficit nearly in half in under 4 years, and has a very responsible election platform. Sad Bradturd is the one panicking. By Tuesday, he’s out of municipal politics, fortune willing. 🙏
Just look at these comment sections, they can never give you a single reason why they hate who they hate. Sad Bradturd will slash services, gut the TTC, privatize our water and turn Toronto into a police state. We’ll lose our bike lanes, be choking under traffic, and homelessness will explode, as will drug use. Vote Chow. Stop the far-right from destroying Toronto after 13 years of their torture.
Chow and her supporters are starting to panic…OMG…what to do? Promise the voters everything ! Pure panic !
CUPE Local 416 paid for the Pollara survey. CUPE nationally openly identifies itself as a partisan union and founding partner of the NDP.
Canadian Union of Public Employees. CUPE Local 416 has publicly endorsed Olivia Chow for re-election. Crazy what one quick search can show you
Chow is only leading by default for having a better balance of public services and cuts versus funding with cost. Bradford has good public services and cuts planned but the funding is a mystery which could lead to service cuts. If Chow wins, it’s not because she’s better, but less worse and voters are reluctantly voting her.
Tom, plenty of us ride bikes recreationally on the weekend, and commute on the TTC most of the work week. We liked him in our ward and want him as our mayor.
Bradly claims to have cycled over 10,000 Km the past year, but days he rides the TTC everyday. If you’re doing both, then you’re not doing much of anything else. His constituents are right. He’s MIA from his riding and probably his family.
55-44 is 11. Not 9. Math clearly isn’t your strong suit.
She was a massive mistake the first time she was elected and she will be a massive mistake the second time shes voted in. Voters are dumb. Just like liberal voters Elbows up.
your story should lead by saying in a poll conducted by CUPE’s choice poller. so misleading with your headline.
Anon241 is a 🤡. Cities in Ontario cannot have debt, period.
And Ian already said he won’t privatize water.
Ford has been reelected twice now
Good. All Bradford wants to do is add massive loan debt onto the city. Just like Ford who has added more to the provincial debt than any Ontario Premier. No one wants our water privatized. And yes, it was on his website (which I printed off) before the backlash began and is now removed. It doesn’t mean he changed his mind on it though. In every debate, he kept changing his story, changing numbers contained in his platform. I don’t trust him. Reminds me too much of Ford.
IF this poll is accurate, all I can say is, “There goes the neighbourhood!”
Online polls are the least accurate. Means nothing.
the village idiot is not leading.Her only talent is dressing up in any outfit and dancing.She is unqualified to head up a 19 billion dollar corporation which is what Toronto is.
Her only attribute is that she was Jack Laytons wife.
The hippes who are the boomers havea lifelong commitment to socialism.The boomesr are dying out.They will be the most dispissed generation
Chow believes in welfare for everyone! That the city will take over parent’s responsibilities for their children, starting with feeding them breakfast and lunch; on the tax payers dime! Lets not stop there folks. The city will then clothe the children and tell them what to think. Communism for everyone !
I don’t buy it. Why would anyone want to see her re-elected? More and more Canadians are not happy with the status quo. A report out today shows that immigration to the US is up a wopping 142%.