A poll commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce suggests almost half of its members would move their businesses out of Alberta if the province votes to separate from Canada.
Probe Research conducted the online survey of 137 Chamber members between June 8 and June 22.
Almost two-thirds of respondents reported that talk of separatism is already having a negative impact on their businesses, while 74 per cent see no tangible benefit from a break from Canada.
The poll comes as Albertans prepare to vote on 10 referendum questions this fall, including one on whether the province should remain in Canada or hold a separation referendum at a later date.
Forty-eight per cent of respondents said they are very or somewhat likely to relocate if the separation process moves forward, while 39 per cent said they are unlikely to do so. Thirteen per cent are unsure.
“I actually looked at that number and my eyebrows went up and I thought, ‘That is a significant number and that would be devastating for Calgary,'” said Deborah Yedlin, president and CEO of the chamber.
Nineteen per cent of respondents reported slowing business expansion plans within Alberta, while 15 per cent are actively looking to relocate.
Almost two-thirds of respondents reported that talk of separatism is already having a negative impact on their businesses, while around three-quarters see no tangible benefit from a break from Canada.
Ninety-one per cent said they are closely following the referendum discussion.
Alberta has long benefited from its reputation of being an entrepreneurial, low-tax and resource-rich place to do business, Yedlin said.
“But businesses make their decisions based on certainty and confidence and this will undermine all of it — no certainty and no confidence,” she said. “Whatever Alberta advantage we had will disappear.”
The Chamber also commissioned an analysis from University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, which found one in three Albertan workers — around 900,000 people — would be exposed to disruptions in trade with the rest of Canada and international markets.
Drawing from the impacts of the United Kingdom’s split from the European Union, Tombe is also estimating a six per cent hit to Alberta’s gross domestic product per capita if the province separates, along with a reduction of 175,000 jobs and a $62-billion cut to the provincial economy per year.
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A working paper published in November of last year by the U.S.-based National Bureau of Economic Research found that by 2025, Brexit had reduced the U.K.’s gross domestic product by six to eight per cent compared to what would have been the case if it had stayed in the EU.
Investment slipped by an estimated 12 to 18 per cent, and employment and productivity each by three to four per cent, the paper said.
The British Chambers of Commerce has calculated that trade deals the U.K. has inked since Brexit have clawed back just one-tenth of the four per cent GDP loss the Office of Budget Responsibility predicted in 2020 would be caused by the split within 15 years.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has said she counts herself in the “stay” camp, shared some preliminary math for startup costs at a news conference earlier this month. The province has also commissioned an economic study and tabbed an expert advisory panel on the potential costs of quitting Confederation.
An independent Alberta would have to take on its share of Canada’s national debt, along with NATO commitments to defence spending and programs like Old Age Security and the Child Tax Benefit — and then there’s the infrastructure for a national pension program, employment insurance and border control.
Trade agreements would need to be renegotiated. Alberta would need its own postal service, along with regulators for telecoms, railways and banks.
All told, Smith said transitional costs could tally up to around $400 billion, with $25 billion to $50 billion in ongoing annual costs.
Separatist leaders disagree, saying an independent Alberta would come with no more than $5.7 billion in startup costs and would post surpluses once tax revenue stops flowing to Ottawa.
The conversation around separation also needs to transcend the economic arguments, as important as those are, Yedlin said.
“There are reasons for people in Alberta to feel like they haven’t been heard and to feel they’ve been taken for granted from a federal perspective. And my response to that is, ‘That’s true.’ I grew up in this province, too,” she said.
But she said the relationship with Ottawa has shifted, with a memorandum of understanding signed last year on a wide array of energy matters, including a path forward for a new west coast oil pipeline.
“Let’s build on what we’ve established and how we’ve changed the trajectory of what’s possible.”
And half would stay. Focus on only one side of the issue.
Not really factual. People like to see the bogeyman. Whatever side your on with regard to debate, life does go on. We are still buying groceries, furniture, cars if we need. And if there is money to be made, the businesses will be there. And half the people won’t be moving to Saskatchewan.
Why wait!!
Leave Now!! :)
The 95 Quebec referendum dropped their GDP by 1.5% over the year and it recovered within 8 months. Alberta has a serious advantage over Quebec in so many categories. If we stay in Canada we know the outcome. It will continue the same way it has for the last decade of lost productivity and being held back by Ottawa. Separating is no doubt a scary proposition but to do the same thing over and over as we have been for the last 40 years, and expecting a different result is pure stupidity.
Hey Rick, all the info in your post is valid but Alberta if ever separates would become 51st state, thus no issue with any of your concerns.
See ya
I am writing to you because the conversation around Alberta independence has drifted far from reality, and Albertans deserve clarity before being asked to make decisions of this magnitude. This isn’t about slogans or “standing up to Ottawa.” If Alberta left Canada, every major law and system we rely on today would have to be rebuilt from scratch, because almost all of our core institutions operate under federal legislation.
Right now, Alberta’s entire legal framework sits inside the Canadian Constitution. Independence means no constitution, no Criminal Code, no federal courts, no federal policing, no federal tax law, no federal benefits, and no federal regulatory bodies. All of that disappears on Day 1 unless Alberta recreates it — and recreating it takes years, not months.
People keep talking like we’d just “change a few laws.” No. We would need:
• A new constitution
• A full criminal code
• A new tax system
• New courts and appeals systems
• New border, customs, and immigration laws
• New pension, disability, and senior benefit laws
• New financial and regulatory systems, including banking, securities, accounting standards, and possibly a central bank
This isn’t ideology — it’s the basic machinery of how countries function. Alberta does not currently have these systems, and you cannot run a modern state without them.
Asking people to vote without those basics is asking them to decide blindly. When the leadership, the transition plan, the legal framework, and the financial realities are all missing, voters aren’t being offered a choice — they’re being asked to take a leap of faith.
The Hidden Costs Nobody Is Talking About
When people talk about separation, they focus on symbolic ideas like sovereignty or resource control. But the real challenges are the technical systems that keep a country running — and those are the most expensive and disruptive parts of all.
If Alberta leaves Canada, accounting procedures, financial reporting standards, and the entire tax system would have to be rebuilt from scratch. Alberta currently relies on Canadian PSAS, IFRS, ASPE, and the CRA’s federal infrastructure. A new country would need its own accounting standards, enforcement bodies, audit regulators, and tax agency. That means years of transition and billions of dollars in setup and operating costs.
Every business would be forced to overhaul payroll, corporate tax filings, cross‑border reporting, GST/VAT replacements, import/export rules, and financial reporting. None of this is optional — it is the backbone of how a state funds itself.
And if the currency changes — whether Alberta keeps CAD, creates an Alberta dollar, or adopts USD — the complexity multiplies. A new currency requires a central bank, foreign reserves, monetary policy, exchange‑rate management, and conversion rules for mortgages, pensions, savings, and contracts. Even keeping the Canadian dollar without a central bank leaves Alberta with no control over monetary policy and no lender of last resort.
People underestimate how much daily life depends on invisible federal systems: CPP accounting, EI administration, customs revenue, federal regulatory reporting, and international tax treaties. All of that would need Alberta‑specific replacements.
The Seniors’ Warning Alberta Cannot Ignore
The most alarming omission in the independence discussion is what it means for seniors.
There are zero guarantees in the plan about:
Old Age Security (OAS) — a federal program Alberta would have to replace entirely, with no costed plan showing how.
CPP pensions already earned — the plan assumes Alberta will receive a large share of CPP assets, but that number is disputed and not guaranteed.
Survivor benefits, disability benefits, GIS, and other federal supports — all would have to be recreated and funded by Alberta alone, with no clear, costed guarantees.
Seniors have spent decades paying into these programs. They deserve iron‑clad certainty, not vague promises and optimistic projections.
The Fiscal Plan: A Political Document, Not a Financial One
The so‑called “Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta” — published by the Alberta Prosperity Project — is not an audited budget, not prepared under GAAP or public‑sector accounting standards, and not based on verified financial data. It is built on best‑case scenarios, not hard numbers.
Its revenue projections depend on:
• perfect oil prices
• speculative economic growth
• uncertain CPP asset transfers
• savings that only exist if negotiations go perfectly
That’s not fiscal planning — that’s gambling with assumptions.
When a proposal hides the true costs, inflates potential revenues, and offers no concrete guarantees for seniors’ pensions, that’s not transparency — that’s a warning sign.
Albertans deserve honesty, independent analysis, and full disclosure before anyone is asked to make decisions of this magnitude. The risks are real, the uncertainties are massive, and the consequences of getting this wrong could last for generations.
I think the Calgary Chamber will not leave Alberta if the province leaves Canada.
Good.
Stupid Boomers.
Have zero concept of good business relationship. Not being Canadian removes the bilingual rule and there are millions of businesses and products just rarrin’ to get here.
No they wouldn’t. Canada is a mess. Alberta is far more affordable. This billion dollar propaganda campaign prompting Ottawa is failing HARD HAHAHAHAHAAHA.
They wouldn’t leave lmao