It’s being described as a “evolving and volatile environment” — but one industry group believes Canada’s energy sector will hold steady in the year ahead.
The Canadian Association of Energy Contractors says it’s expecting 5,709 wells to be drilled next year, up about three per cent from this year.
It’s expecting roughly the same percentage increase in drilling rig operating days and service rig operating hours.
“We think the market is going to be much more constructive in the second half (of 2026),” said President and CEO Mark Scholz. “That’s where we think a lot of the growth that we’re going to be seeing for our drilling services as well as service rig services.”
Both Scholz and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith took time to underscore the importance of Western Canadian participation as global demand for oil increases — with some forecasters predicting a jump of roughly 25% by 2050.
“We want Alberta to be a growing share of a growing market,” remarked Smith, who delivered a keynote address at the CAOEC State of the Industry announcement Monday.
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The forecast comes on the heels of a memorandum of understanding signed by Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney last week, promising action on a pipeline to the west coast — and the removal of the federal oil and gas emissions cap.
“Finally, Canada has a Prime Minister who seems to understand what Alberta’s energy means to Canadians across the nation in terms of revenue, livelihood and quality of life,” Smith said in her address.
While it won’t do much to change the short-term forecast, Scholz says he’s bullish on the future of this deal.
“I would say we’re incredibly encouraged… 12 months ago, this would have been unheard of.”
“We’ve struck a really good balance that I think is going to be able to really position western Canada, Alberta and the entirety of the country to be able to export to new markets and also be able to provide mortgage paying jobs for Canadians,” Scholz added.
While B.C. Premier David Eby has opposed repealing the tanker ban along costal waters, Smith asked him to keep “an open mind” about those changes.
Under the MoU, Alberta and British Columbia would need to work together to move the project forward.
The Alberta government hopes to submit a proposal to the federal Major Projects Office by July 1st, 2026.
The CAOEC represents 89 land drilling, offshore drilling and service rig companies operating across Canada.
Another energy industry services group, Enserva, released its outlook for the sector last week.
Enserva is predicting a 5.6 per cent drop in spending this year versus last, and a further 2.2 per cent decline in 2026.
- With files from the Canadian Press
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