The revolt by some Liberal MPs against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership may not have led to his ouster, but one political analyst says tensions within the party will last for some time — and may further hurt the Liberals’ electoral prospects.
Trudeau made clear on Thursday he would remain as leader after some Liberals MPs signed onto an internal document calling on the prime minister to step aside, and those members voiced their frustrations to Trudeau at an hours-long caucus meeting on Wednesday.
In an interview that aired Sunday on The West Block, Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, told host Mercedes Stephenson that Trudeau’s vow to stay on means nothing has changed from before the internal Liberal revolt began, with no ability for dissenting caucus members to force Trudeau’s resignation.
“Now I think everything gets uncomfortable for a while,” Turnbull said. “And we’ll see how long that can last until the next election.”
The Liberals have not adopted the powers made available to parties under the Reform Act, which includes the option for at least 20 per cent of a party’s caucus to trigger a leadership review if a caucus votes to adopt the act, which they have the chance to do after federal elections.
The Conservative caucus has done so, and became the first party to invoke the federal legislation to force a vote on whether to keep Erin O’Toole as leader in 2022, leading to his ouster and the subsequent election of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Turnbull said the Liberals would be in a better place today if it had those same mechanisms in place.
“From Justin Trudeau’s perspective, (he can say,) ‘You know what? If you guys want to push me out, get the numbers and if you’ve got the numbers, I’m gone. And if not, shut up,'” she said. “And it would be better for the caucus because they’d actually have a mechanism to do it. There would be clarity.
“Right now, it’s the worst of all worlds.”
The longer the dissent within the Liberals continues, Tunrbull said, the harder it is for Trudeau and his party to make the case to Canadians about why they deserve to be elected and win a fourth mandate.
“It’s a lose-lose situation for all of them,” she said.
The Liberals have spent more than a year in a double-digit polling deficit against the Conservatives, who have benefitted from growing public anger towards Trudeau and his slow approach to affordability concerns.
Polling done for Global News by Ipsos in September found Trudeau’s popularity was at a “new low” in his nine years as prime minister.
Turnbull said while past leadership challenges have been less urgent, the current Liberal revolt is based on MP’s fears of their own political survival.
“I think the worst case scenarios for the Liberals are pretty bad,” she said.
“Some of these people are like, ‘If Justin Trudeau doesn’t step aside, I’m going to lose my seat. I think a lot of people are going to lose theirs. Is there any way that he would kind of take one for the team and let someone else come in, to see if we can save anything?'”
So far, no caucus members have publicly emerged as a potential successor.
Former B.C. Premier Christy Clark said last week she wanted to be “part of the conversation” about the future of the federal Liberals in the event Trudeau chooses to step aside.