What to expect from this year’s flu season

TORONTO – Canadians were celebrating the New Year last year while nursing loved ones feeling under the weather. It was unusual – the peak of the flu season came early.

Each year, in late October, flu vaccination clinics pop up across the country and Canadians roll up their sleeves for a shot to protect against a season of coughing, sneezing, fevers and sick days.

The flu typically makes an appearance by November and December – by January, there’s an upswing of sickness that hits the country and lingers before the influenza dissipates. But evidently that wasn’t the case last year.

READ MORE: What happened in the 2012-2013 flu season

By December 15, there were 3,500 cases of the flu, according to Public Health Agency of Canada data. In the 2011/2012 season, there were only 182 cases at the same time.

“Last year’s flu season was particularly severe,” Dr. Paul Das, a St. Michael’s Hospital physician and University of Toronto professor, told Global News.

It’s hard to tell what the flu season has in store for us this year.

“The truth is that flu seasons are unpredictable in a number of ways. Influenza epidemics can theoretically happen every year. However, the timing, severity and length of the season varies from one year to another,” he said.

Das and Dr. Gerald Evans, a medicine professor at Queen’s University and director of infection control at Kingston General Hospital, shared their insight on what to expect from the 2013/2014 flu season.

What influenza strains could be headed our way?

Each year, strains of influenzas mutate and re-emerge infecting victims and triggering a new season. In the southern hemisphere, the flu season runs from April through September, and in the northern hemisphere, the season picks up from October through March or April.

Scientists here keep a watchful eye over the flu patterns in the south then garner their predictions based on what viruses made their rounds below us. They have to factor in the possibility of mutations when doing their guesswork.

READ MORE: Flu season sweeps the nation as cases spike

This year, North American doctors are banking on either one of these three: an H1N1-like A/California/7/2009, an H3N3 strain called A/Victoria/361/2011 and an influenza B/Massachusetts/2/2012.

Those strains are then included in the seasonal vaccine that’s given to the masses. Evans says that three-quarters of the time, the medical community is right and the flu vaccine concocted that year is the correct defense against that year’s influenza.

As of Dec. 27, Alberta Health Services said there were 662 confirmed flu cases in the province, including 621 people with H1N1.

According to The Canadian Press, Alberta Health services plans to open mass immunization clinics in Edmonton, Calgary, Slave Lake and Grand Prairie. Further mass immunizations could be opened if the surge in cases continues.

There have also been cases of H1N1 reported in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Health officials confirmed 13 cases of the H1n1 in New Brunswick, while Nova Scotia had six reported cases as of Dec. 31.

Is there a rhyme or reason to the way flu touches down in Canada?

Theories in the past usually point to the flu first gaining speed in Western Canada before making its way to the east by January or February.

Last year, Evans said his guess is that the West Coast is typically a point of entry for people travelling to and from Asia, where most influenza first appear.

But with globalization, that’s no longer the case.

READ MORE: Should flu shots be mandatory for health care workers?

Last year, for example, Canadians were most affected in Ontario and Quebec. And the peak period came right around Christmas.  It was Evans’ first time off work for Christmas and New Year’s, but he had to come back into the office anyway.

“We were just inundated, we had to deal with how patients were admitted. It was very unique because it was earlier and it challenged the health care system because it happened over the holiday period,” Evans explained.

It might have been a good thing though – during the holidays, there are less surgeries scheduled, freeing up hospital beds.

On average, the flu season is about six weeks long: the influenza arrives, the infection peaks for about two weeks and then tapers out within the following few weeks.

What were vaccination rates like last year?

Das said that across Canada, influenza vaccination decreased from 30.2 per cent of all people in 2011 to 28.9 per cent in 2012. He said his worry is that there are “many myths and stigma around the flu.” On average, about 20 to 25 per cent of Canadians get vaccinated.

Health care workers report higher numbers at about 40 per cent.

Evans says that if at least 75 per cent of the public were to be immunized, “herd immunity” would occur. That means that even if a single person wasn’t vaccinated, if most people were around them were, the risk of transmission would be very low.

Kids as young as six months old can start getting the vaccine. It’s also recommended for populations at risk of complications. These people who are more vulnerable include pregnant women, children under five years old, seniors and residents in long-term care or nursing homes.

READ MORE: Flu shot halves risk of heart attack or stroke in heart disease patients, Canadian study suggests

Das also says that those with underlying health problems, such as chronic diseases (asthma, chronic bronchitis, cancer) should also make their way to a flu vaccination clinic.

The physicians also suggest that getting the vaccine earlier helps. It takes about two weeks for the vaccine to be most effective, and its effects are long-lasting.

For more on the flu season, take a look at the government’s Flu Watch.

To read about flu prevention tips, take a look at the Public Health Agency of Canada’s website.

carmen.chai@globalnews.ca
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