The Ford government is projected to fall short of its own housing construction targets, according to the Fall Economic Statement, putting the province’s promise of building 1.5 million homes by 2031 at risk.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy released the mid-year spending document, on Thursday, which also included housing starts projections based on private-sector forecasts.
The government has used housing starts — defined by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation as the moment concrete has been poured — as its benchmark to measure the success of its housing goals.
Between 2024 and 2026, the province projects seeing 268,100 housing starts based on an average of private sector forecasts: 84,500 in 2024; 89,200 in 2025; and 94,400 in 2026.
While the number is higher than previously projected, it is well below the targets set by the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. In a letter to municipalities, Paul Calandra recently outlined the new benchmarks the province would aim to reach every year until 2031.
“Housing targets will ramp up to 125,000 in 2024, 150,000 in 2025 and 175,000 beginning in 2026,” Calandra said in a letter obtained by Global News, suggesting the province wants to see at least 450,000 homes begin construction over the same three-year period.
Calandra’s letter also laid out the expectation that the province would see at least 110,000 housing starts in 2023 — a figure that isn’t achievable, according to projections accepted by the province.
The government’s spending bill is projecting 89,500 housing starts in 2023, just 81 per cent of the provincial benchmark.
According to a provincial tracker just nine municipalities, including Toronto, have met or exceeded their housing targets, while 38 municipalities have not met this year’s targets.