Final poll shows Liberals gaining in one byelection and shrinking in another

TORONTO – Voters head to the polls Monday for byelections in Toronto Centre, the Montreal riding of Bourassa and the Manitoba ridings of Provencher and Brandon-Souris, and according to a final poll conducted by Forum Research and released on Sunday, the Liberals have gained ground in one riding while losing ground in another.

The battle for Toronto Centre shows NDP candidate Linda McQuaig’s support climbing from 32 per cent a week ago to 39 per cent today. Liberal candidate Chrystia Freeland is holding steady at 47 per cent. The Conservatives and the Greens barely register in this riding, with 11 per cent and 3 per cent support, respectively.

In the Manitoba riding of Brandon‐Souris, Liberal candidate Rolf Dinsdale has seen his share increase from 44 per cent last week to 59 per cent today. Conservative candidate Larry Maguire has seen his support decline from 36 per cent a week ago to just 30 per cent today. The NDP (6 per cent) and Greens (5 per cent) do not compete in this riding.

READ MORE: Byelections measure impact of Senate scandal, battle for opposition supremacy

The Montreal riding of Bourassa was polled last on Friday, November 22 and showed the gap between the Liberals and NDP had tightened from 51 per cent to 21 per cent a week ago, to 43 per cent to 31 per cent, respectively.

In the Manitoba riding of Provencher, also polled on Friday, November 22, Conservative Ted Falk saw his lead drop from 51 per cent a week ago to 48 per cent, while his Liberal opponent had his support rise from 30 per cent to 37 per cent.

“The dynamic we’re seeing here is that those ridings where the Liberals had solid leads, in Toronto and Montreal, are now more competitive, and the Manitoba ridings they were supposed to lose are looking better and better. In fact, it’s looking like a Liberal landslide in Brandon‐Souris, which would have the devil learning to skate,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Forum Research conducted the polls in Toronto Centre and Brandon‐Souris on Nov. 24 with results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of randomly selected Canadians over the age of 18. Margin of error for Toronto Centre results are +/- 4 per cent, Brandon-Souris results are +/- 5 per cent.