Donald Trump is going to win.
So says Allan Lichtman, the distinguished professor who has correctly predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1984.
His predictions, according to The Washington Post, are based on a set of 13 true/false questions he and a Russian scientist developed in the 1980s.
“True” answers favour the incumbent party – in this case, the Democrats and Hillary Clinton. By the same token, answers of “false” favour the other party – the Republicans and Trump. Six or more false answers point to a changing of the guard in the White House, according to Lichtman’s theory.
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When Lichtman sat down to make his prediction for the Nov. 8 vote, he found six of the keys yielded a “false” response. That means things aren’t looking good for the Democratic party’s bid to keep the White House.
Those questions, or “Keys to the White House,” in Lichtman’s terms, according to the Post, are:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
One of the indicators yielding a false answer is the fourth, which looks at third-party support.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is polling at 4.8 per cent of the popular vote, according to the most recent numbers from fivethirtyeight.com.
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Anything higher than five per cent support for a third party points to dissatisfaction with the incumbent president’s party, Lichtman told the Post.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll published over the weekend illustrated a once-again tightening race between the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees.
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Only one per cent separates Clinton from Trump, who polled at 46 per cent and 45 per cent respectively, according to the report. The spread is statistically insignificant.
The poll was conducted through telephone interviews on Oct. 28 and 29, after the bombshell revelation from the FBI head, who sent a letter to Congress alerting members the investigation into Clinton’s email server was no longer considered “closed.”
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The poll indicated four per cent of voters support Johnson – a slightly lower number than the FiveThirtyEight calculations – and two per cent support for the Green Party’s Jill Stein.
The website, which aggregates and analyzes opinion polls, currently shows Clinton has a less than 80 per cent chance of winning, while Trump has a 21.1 per cent chance.
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Perhaps one of Lichtman’s keys will flip to favour Clinton and the Democrats; other indicators that yield a false: the first, third, seventh, 11th and 12th.
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