WATCH: The Tories are facing two big moves: Eve Adams crossing the floor and a cabinet shuffle. Tom Clark provides some analysis into what this means for the future of the Conservatives.
As with any floor crossing, there are competing theories as to why and how it came about. Almost always, the recipient of the wayward MP declares it to be a great moment, and almost always the jilted party declares that the MP was unstable and toxic, so good riddance.
So it was with Eve Adams.
The “why” is almost always answered simply: ambition and revenge. But after talking to a number of sources, this version of events may clarify the “how.”
READ MORE: Ontario MP Eve Adams joins Liberals, calls Tories ‘fear-mongers and bullies’
Some time before Christmas, Eve Adams and Dimitri Soudas called the co-chairs of the Liberal campaign in Ontario. They wanted to talk, they said, about becoming Liberals.
Talks started almost immediately, but it would take another month before anything was brought to the federal leadership team and Justin Trudeau. By the last week of January, the meetings moved to the senior levels. Sources say that no incentive was offered to get Adams to cross the floor — because none was needed.
They say Adams and Soudas both proclaimed that they had been betrayed by Stephen Harper, and they were ready to fight back.
So the request was granted. Adams could move over to the Liberal benches.
But there is more to it than that.
READ MORE: Who is Eve Adams?
Adams made it clear she wasn’t done with politics. She wanted to run. According to at least once source, the Liberals were equally clear; there would be no deals to smooth a way to a nomination. She would have to fight for one. That eliminated any safe Liberal ridings, as many already had candidates.
And in those that were still being contested , there were already well-funded campaigns underway, and she wouldn’t stand a chance.
That left only left one option: take on a Conservative heavyweight in a riding that might be hard to win.
There are two open ridings in the GTA where the Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate that fit this bill. Either Vaughan, the riding of cabinet minister Julian Fantino, or more likely Eglinton-Lawrence, the riding of Finance Minister Joe Oliver.
Oliver won by 4,000 votes last time and is considered vulnerable against a big challenger. Eve Adams may never have been considered a giant killer before, but her name and celebrity may represent a real chance to knock off Oliver.
The narrative writes itself: a woman wronged and scorned by Harper, against his closest minister. It’s by no means a sure bet. Adams would need a groundswell Liberal tide to propel her to victory.
But for the Liberals, its a no-lose proposition. If she wins, great. If she loses, so what?
READ MORE: A brief history of floor crossing in Ottawa
The real win for the Liberals may not really lie in the electoral prospects of Adams, but in the mind-messing possibilities brought by her fiancé, Dimitri Soudas.
As Harper’s long-time press secretary, then director of communications, then the Conservative Party’s executive director, Soudas knows Harper inside out, and knows a lot of sensitive information.
The mere fact that Soudas is talking to Liberals may drive Harper crazy and throw him off his usually highly scripted game. In the military, they call it psy ops.
The Liberals have been very careful to point out Soudas will not hold any position in the party, and will only be working on the local level. No source I spoke with felt Soudas would be of much value as his information might be suspect. But what matters is what Harper believes is going on, and he is by nature very suspicious.
So there’s no great conspiracy, no underhanded deals. It’s just a run of the mill tawdry tale of ambition and betrayal. But it changes the ground for the electoral players and gives the rest of us a highly entertaining spectacle.
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