Watch above: With the swipe of a pen, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin takes one of the final steps to make Crimea a part of Russia. Mike Armstrong reports.
Canada has slapped a fresh round of economic sanctions on Russian and Crimean officials in response to Sunday’s referendum results, freezing the assets of 17 additional people and placing travel bans on them.
But those don’t seem to faze Russian President Vladimir Putin, who on Tuesday signed an agreement to formally make Crimea and the Ukrainian city of Sevastopol part of the Russian Federation.
Allen Sens, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, said sanctions announced by Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird on Tuesday demonstrate two things.
They also demonstrate an unwillingness to punish the entire Russian or Crimean populations for the actions of their leaders with an “extensive, deep sanctions regime that might cause economic hardship or economic difficulty.”
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The problem, Sens suggested, is that without harsher and more widespread sanctions against those governments, it’s not going to make much difference on Russia’s actions.
“It might be seen as a first step. But I hardly think, with the passions of the moment and the situation so fluid, that they’re going to have any impact whatsoever,” Sens said.
“The Russian leadership, quite correctly, has judged that it is holding the main cards with respect to this dispute and they are proceeding accordingly. … They are essentially daring Europe and the United States to respond in away more significant than they have to this point.”
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Dr. Aurel Braun, a visiting professor in the Department of Government at Harvard University, agrees that Putin and the members of his government facing asset freezes and travel bans are not bothered in the least by Canadian and Western condemnation.
“In the view of Mr. Putin they’re laughable,” he told Global News. “He does not take them seriously. Some of the members of the Duma showed their contempt by saying ‘Put us on the list, as well.'”
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While governments such as Canada and the United States are singling out individuals with sanctions, some may wonder why Putin himself is not among those facing any freezes or bans.
Sens said that would be counterproductive while trying to reach a negotiated solution in an already tense situation.
That’s not to say Western governments can’t pressure an economically vulnerable Russian Federation. And international isolation won’t help the Kremlin in the long-run.
“Russia is not a superpower,” Braun said, pointing out that the volatility of Russia’s stock market and the low value of the Russian ruble.
According to Bloomberg, the Russian stock market hit a four-year low last week and the ruble was at a record low against the U.S. dollar this year.
“Down the line – three months, six months, a year from now – the questions will be asked, ‘Why is our economy doing so badly? Is it that we’ve made mistakes internationally?’”
But Western governments could see repercussions themselves.
Europe could feel the most immediate effect if Russia were to suddenly turn off its oil and natural gas pipelines. But countries like the U.S. and Canada could still feel an economic pinch, Sens said.
“Both the United States and Canada do have companies doing business in Russia and there is always the potential for a severe disruption, if not severing, of those types of economic relationships,” he said.
Sens points to Canada’s long Arctic border with Russia and the Canadian government’s decision to suspend military cooperation with Russia.
“When you need a collaborative relationship in order to move forward on issues related to the Arctic, the suspension of any types of negotiations or talks or channels of communication is never a positive development,” he said.
“Should that go on for a longer period of time, it could degenerate into a longer almost freeze in the relationship between Russia and the West. Those could be quite serious consequences for Canada, politically.”
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