The first major debate of Toronto’s mayoral election appeared to set out the battle lines for the campaign’s second half, city hall watchers said Tuesday, as Olivia Chow defended her front-runner status against a field looking to make up ground.
Chow, a former city councillor and federal NDP lawmaker, handled the brunt of questions at Monday’s debate, as four other candidates pressed her for details on her plan.
It offered a preview of what to expect in the coming weeks as those four candidates — Josh Matlow, Ana Bail?o, Mitzie Hunter and Brad Bradford — try to separate from the pack and establish themselves as Chow’s main challenger, said Myer Siemiatycki, professor emeritus of politics at Toronto Metropolitan University.
With the chance to interrogate each other during Monday’s debate, all the contenders directed their first round of questions at Chow.
Bradford, a city councillor, and former deputy mayor Bail?o pressured Chow to say how much she would raise taxes. Matlow, who is also on Toronto council, and former provincial education minister Hunter went after details related to Chow’s affordable housing and tenant protection plans.
“I think that she held that ground and I think would have consolidated a sense that she is the candidate that the others are chasing,” Siemiatycki said of Chow.
Former Toronto police chief Mark Saunders did not participate in Monday’s debate, hosted by the Daily Bread Food Bank, which invited the top six candidates based on polling data to discuss their plans to tackle poverty and affordability.
When asked to explain his absence, Saunders’ campaign said he had a “long-standing conflict.” A campaign spokeswoman noted his attendance last week at a debate hosted by a local business improvement association, and confirmed he would attend a debate set to be held by the Toronto Region Board of Trade next week.
Considerable public attention has focused in the first half of the mayoral byelection campaign on the record number of candidates — 102 by the time nominations closed Friday — vying for a shot at replacing scandal-departed John Tory, Siemiatycki said.
Monday’s debate inaugurated the second half of the 12-week race as focus shifts to a top tier of candidates “who appear to have a conceivable path to victory” on election day, June 26.
“The heat is going to get turned up and it’s going to be a high anxiety time for candidates who are trying to play catch up,” Siemiatycki said.
Some candidates who share policies will likely face pressure to bow out of the race to support those seen as standing a better shot at overtaking Chow, said Zachary Spicer, a political science expert and associate professor at York University.
For many it means fighting a campaign battle on two fronts, Spicer and Siemiatycki said. Candidates will have to separate themselves from ideological peers, while also keeping up the pressure on Chow.
Chow and her team, meanwhile, will have to contend with the increased scrutiny that comes with a front-runner campaign, Spicer said.
“They’re going to be very cautious and very careful about the policy positions that they take,” he said of Chow and her team.
The mayoral byelection was triggered by Tory’s resignation in February after he admitted to an affair with a staffer.