For the first time in two years New Brunswickers will hear a speech from the throne on Tuesday afternoon.
The speech will be delivered just 12 days after the explosive resignation of former education minister Dominic Cardy who, in his exit from the cabinet, accused premier Blaine Higgs of ignoring evidence and making emotional decisions, wanting to take “a wrecking ball” to the province’s French immersion system and of undermining reconciliation work with the province’s minority linguistic and cultural communities.
The shuffle that followed saw former People’s Alliance leader Kris Austin elevated to cabinet, which has angered Francophones across the province due to his views on official bilingualism.
JP Lewis, a political scientist at the University of New Brunswick, says the departure of Cardy and addition of Austin may be an interesting lens through which to view the throne speech.
“Will there be signs of some of the things that pushed Cardy to leave cabinet. Are there signs that Cardy may have been a tempering force as a more moderate conservative,” he said.
“Is there evidence of certain policy priorities that we can identify as ‘Oh, that seems like something Cardy wouldn’t have been on board with?'”
Cardy’s departure has also put a spotlight on the province’s French immersion system, with the revelation that Higgs is intent on seeing the system replaced with a universal French program for all incoming Anglophone students next year. Education reform has long been a focus of this government, with the last throne speech promising it would ensure more students graduate with a conversational level of French language skills.
But the plan has sparked criticism from various sources, from parent groups who say eliminating French immersion will make language skills in the province worse, to the New Brunswick Teachers Association which says short-staffed teachers already exhausted from teaching through a pandemic, aren’t equipped to deal with an accelerated timeline to introduce the new French program.
The throne speech will also be received against the backdrop of a health-care crisis typified by frequent emergency room closures, a lack of primary health-care providers and chronic issues in recruitment and retention of health professionals.
When Higgs dissolved the boards of the province’s two health authorities and fired the CEO of Horizon earlier this year, he all but ensured the next election will be fought on health care, according to Jamie Gilles, a professor of public policy and communications at St. Thomas University.
Get daily New Brunswick news
“The health-care system has destabilized. That may be somewhat a result of the pandemic, but it’s also a result of government leadership and what’s happened and attempts to change that that have not necessarily worked,” he said. “So they’ve got to stabilize the system I think before the next election or this could be an issue they could lose on.”
The government has tried hard to position itself beyond the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as they’ve faced criticism in some quarters for a refusal to bring back protective measures through a steady increase of cases and deaths since they were removed in the spring.
The last throne speech in the fall of 2020 mentioned COVID-19 34 times. The economic impact of the pandemic was spoken about at length, with the government still projecting heavy deficits for the next several years. But a faster than expected economic bounce-back, and a record population boom in the province have since turned its fiscal fortunes around, with record surpluses posted in the last few years.
How the government expects to move beyond recovery could be a theme of the speech, according to Gilles.
“The challenge for Blaine Higgs and the PC government is how do you present a throne speech with COVID-19 and the pandemic in the rearview mirror and I don’t think that we’re quite there yet,” he said.
“They’re trying to look ahead and trying to plan accordingly, but I think they’re still stuck, as the federal government is and as other provincial governments are, of having to guard against what happens if we go through more waves.”
Political watchers will also be looking for any clues on the premier’s plans over the next few years. Higgs is 68 years old and there has been plenty of speculation that he will step down before the next scheduled election in 2024.
“If it appears that it’s an ambitious document, is that foreshadowing that Higgs is going to stay on to fight the next election?” Lewis said.
The throne speech will be delivered on Tuesday at 1 p.m.