The results of Tuesday’s election in Nova Scotia should serve as a lesson for Justin Trudeau, his opponents say, as political experts stay split on whether the outcome will hurt the Liberals’ chances in the national election.
While on the campaign trail in Quebec on Wednesday, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole told reporters that Nova Scotia’s results show a “couple of things.”
“Certainly as a federal Conservative leader, I love the results on the ground in Nova Scotia,” O’Toole said, less than 24 hours after Nova Scotians turfed a minority Liberal government for a majority Progressive Conservative one.
“Canadians are demanding leadership and a plan for the future, and governments, incumbents, can’t just have elections at their own convenience for their own self-interest.”
Out in Burnaby, B.C., NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said the results are a “lesson for Justin Trudeau.”
“What we saw in this election was a Liberal government that called an election hoping to find a majority that was surprised to lose that entirely,” he said.
“I think that’s a lesson for Justin Trudeau.”
On Tuesday, Nova Scotia residents went to the polls in an election called by Liberal Leader Iain Rankin, who was hoping to gain a majority government.
Of the four snap elections called in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, two ended with incumbent parties getting re-elected with a majority, in B.C. and Newfoundland.
The third in Nova Scotia has resulted in PC Leader Tim Houston now bearing the title premier-designate.
The outcome of the fourth – Canada’s federal election – will be determined next month.
“Tim Houston had a plan, the federal conservatives have Canada’s recovery plan and it shows Canadians are paying attention and I trust Canadians to make the right decision on Sept. 20 federally,” O’Toole said.
With Conservatives cheering the PC win, there’s one factor that stands out: Houston has publicly distanced himself from O’Toole’s party.
When a federal Conservative convention rejected a resolution calling on the Tories to recognize that “climate change is real,” Houston said that the position was “not helpful” to his own party.
“That’s a separate party,” Houston reportedly said at the time.
“I’m the leader of the Nova Scotia PC Party, it’s a separate party, different leaders, different members and, in some cases, obviously different values.”
O’Toole said the two parties do have “shared values” in many areas, but are in fact different.
“We are different parties, but we have shared values in many areas and shared volunteers,” he said. “So it was a great night for Nova Scotia and an example that often people will look for change and demand better — and I’m offering that in Ottawa.”
When asked about the Nova Scotia results and if they would impact his campaign, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said only his party will move Canada “forward.”
“Election campaigns are an important moment for citizens to choose what direction they want their country, their communities to take. That’s why here in this federal election, the choices are so incredibly important for Canadians. Do we get to see Conservatives take Canada back? Or do we move forward for everyone?” he told reporters in Vancouver.
“That choice really matters, and what we saw in Nova Scotia really highlights that.”
Political strategists weigh in
Political strategists appear torn on how the results of Nova Scotia’s election will impact the federal one.
Conservative strategist Kate Harrison, vice chair at Summa Strategies, said the win in Nova Scotia is good for O’Toole, despite Houston’s distancing from the federal Conservatives.
“It’s still definitely a good thing because I think overall we now have the most clear present example of what happens when you call a snap election really over nothing,” she told Global News on Tuesday.
“Iain Rankin was punished for it, and that may well end up being the case federally, as well, with Justin Trudeau.”
Harrison added federal Conservatives can learn some lessons from the successful PC campaign — one being how to read Canada’s fiscal mood correctly.
“You need to be willing to talk about big spending in order to course-correct some things that aren’t going right. Health care was one of those for the PCs,” Harrison explained.
However, one Liberal strategist said Conservatives shouldn’t read too much into this victory.
“It is going to be very tough for the federal Tories to make hay with this since their provincial cousins in Nova Scotia made it pretty clear they didn’t want them around,” said Greg MacEachern, senior vice president at Proof Strategies.
MacEachern added though that Liberals should be taking note of the result.
“Are there signs and messages here for the federal Liberals? Of course there are. And they’d be foolish not to take a look at them,” he said.
— with files from Rachel Gilmore