Pine Lake tornado 20 years later: How did so much go wrong?

Twenty years ago, YouTube was the thing under your sink, cellphones and cameras were two different devices, and the number of radar stations in Alberta was on par with the number of Alberta NHL teams.

The radar stations in 2000 were located in Vulcan and Carvel. Thanks to the curvature of the Earth — and that radar cannot detect low level features, see through objects, and has a beam wider than a tornado — they are not capable of monitoring all storm activity.

They can detect larger storm circulation, assuming nothing is blocking its beam. With that in mind, Pine Lake is halfway between Carvel and Vulcan, so radar coverage was minimal back then.

3:11 ‘I remember it clearly, but it still seems like a very surreal event’: Andrew Schultz on Pine Lake tornado

On July 14, 2000, the storm which would eventually bring tragedy to so many was being monitored by the Carvel radar, approximately 160 km to the north. It was near the community of Caroline, fortunately so was an off-duty meteorologist from Calgary, on a family trip.

He made a phone call to now-retired meteorologist Pat McCarthy, who was on duty that day, and provided the kind of detail that technology of the time couldn’t come close to.

“He was giving me firsthand reports all through that day as to what was happening,” McCarthy said. “The whole organization realized there was lots of value getting data from the ground whether from storm chasers or just the public.”

2:21 ‘Just trying to search for family.’ Pine Lake tornado survivors relive twister’s terror 20 years later

In fact, back then McCarthy said they would open the phone book and call people in the area to try and get more information from what locals were seeing.

Today, storm chasers and the public can record, send and receive instant information about storms through phones and other devices. Back then a phone and a camera were separate, and forget about LTE.

Thanks to a report supplied by Environment and Climate Change Canada, we now know a lot more about how the events unfolded that day. Several elements early that day suggested that conditions may be too stable for thunderstorms to form. As the day progressed, however, a few more elements began to line up.

Atmospheric instability is measured on the “Lifted Index.” The further below zero the value, the more unstable and likely to allow for storm development. The forecast through Saskatchewan was a -9 (very unstable), and while not as severe, the Red Deer to Lloydminster corridor was also leaning to that side of the index.

At 3:30 pm, amidst the other storms that were developing that day, a convective cell started to grow near Limestone Mountain, southwest of Rocky Mountain House. It gave off very little lightning as it moved eastward, gaining strength. Around an hour later, it would come into view of an off-duty meteorologist, who made a phone call.

From 5 p.m. to 5:30 p.m., the storm’s top grew to 12 km in size. It was showing stronger characteristics of becoming a “supercell.”

Calls to the public suggested no severe weather was occurring. However, Prairie Storm Prediction Centre (PSPC) forecasters did issue a severe thunderstorm watch for the Red Deer region.

At 5:40 p.m., the GOES satellite photo of the storm showed evidence of a strong updraft; a key element to hail production.

2:18 July 14, 2000: Powerful tornado rips through Green Acres campground on Pine Lake killing 12

By 6:10 p.m., the storm was near the town of Penhold. By now, it was a dangerous supercell. The on-site meteorologist reported the storm’s base to be descending and becoming obscured by rain. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the city of Red Deer and areas in the counties near Penhold and Pine Lake.

At 6:23 p.m., a report of large hail breaking car windows in the city of Red Deer was made. The storm was moving eastward at roughly 60 km/h. Northeasterly winds at the low level were flowing into the storms updraft. These winds veered clockwise with the southwesterly winds above them. This helped the rotation within the updraft. Two conditions favour this — the production of hail and the potential to produce a tornado.

The PSPC did not receive any severe weather reports for the next 30 minutes. Following the storm, eyewitness accounts recall seeing a wall cloud develop and drop lower, with rotation seen within. No tornado was spotted.

Then, less than 10 kilometres away, in fields west of the Green Acres Campground, whirls of dust were spotted.

“We could see that that tornado was what we would call rain wrapped,” Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Dan Kulak said.

He was on scene after the disaster to investigate what had transpired.

“The rain and hail from that system was wrapping around the tornado and it was really, a bad-case scenario. The campground was down on a hill below, near the water — not a lot of visual clues for the people in that area that this bad storm was coming.”

1:47 A look back at the Pine Lake tornado 20 years later

The tornado was first reported via the Red Deer RCMP around 7:05 p.m. The report suggested that a tornado may have hit Green Acres. The PSPC issued a tornado warning at 7:10 p.m. for areas to Pine Lake’s east.

The tornado remained in contact with the ground for between 15 to 20 kilometres. The storm would eventually divide into two, still causing damage as it went. The supercell dissipated after midnight, but only after it crossed into Saskatchewan near Macklin.

The dozen lives lost that day, and dozens more injured, as well as the destruction the tornado caused made it the deadliest tornado in the year 2000, in all of North America.

In the 20 years that followed, big advances were made in not only radar placement around Alberta, but also how storms are monitored, interpreted and forecasted. The watch and warning systems have also been refined.

3:03 Pine Lake tornado: How weather technology has advanced 20 years later