CALGARY – Former health minister Gary Mar is leading the race to be the next Tory leader and appears to have the momentum heading into Saturday’s vote, according to a new poll of PC party members that also indicates a second ballot will be necessary to decide a winner.
As Progressive Conservative party faithful prepare to vote for Ed Stelmach’s successor, an Environics Research Group poll of 800 Tory rank and file – conducted for the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal – shows Mar is the front-runner with the support of 31 per cent of decided and leaning members.
Calgary MLA and former justice minister Alison Redford is a strong second at 20 per cent, with Doug Horner (12 per cent) and Ted Morton (10 per cent) in a virtual tie for third place – the position Stelmach famously held in 2006 after the first ballot, only to catapult to the premiership on the second vote.
“At this point, pretty broadly, it looks like Mar is seen as having the momentum and is leading,” said Environics pollster Tony Coulson.
“This doesn’t turn out to a first-ballot victory and it’s even a question mark at this point who would be the third candidate on the second ballot.”
Only the top three finishers advance to a second preferential vote on Oct. 1, should no one capture a majority on the first ballot in the one-member, one-vote system.
If another ballot is needed, members will be required to vote once more and, if there’s no majority, the third-place candidate is knocked off and has their second choices tabulated to determine a winner.
Rick Orman (five per cent) and Doug Griffiths (four per cent) round out the field of six candidates, according to the Sept. 8-9 telephone survey from a list of approximately 22,000 PC members registered by early September.
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A large number of cardcarrying PC members – 17 per cent – are either undecided or refusing to say who they support.
Candidates were also expected to submit thousands more names of registered Tory members between the time of the survey and Saturday’s vote, which could sharply change the dynamics of the race.
Each leadership camp’s ability to mobilize their supporters will also influence the results.
David Taras, a political analyst at Mount Royal University, said Mar is retaining a strong grip on his frontrunner status and proving to be formidable across the province. However, the lessons of the 2006 Tory contest and likelihood for candidates like Morton to add thousands of new members to the list means the race is still up for grabs, he said.
“A lot of bets are off,” Taras said. “The playoff round is a completely different voting round and a completely different campaign.”
Mar, 49, is also the favoured second choice among the PC members polled, which could be an important factor if no candidate snares a majority this weekend.
The former Calgary MLA and provincial trade representative in Washington, D.C., is the second choice of 20 per cent of party members polled, followed by Redford and Horner at 14 per cent each. Morton is the second choice of nine per cent of those surveyed, followed by Orman (eight per cent) and Griffiths (six per cent).
“Gary Mar picks up second choices from virtually all of the other candidates, and that’s why he looks well positioned,” Coulson said.
Card-carrying members were also asked who they believed had the most momentum heading into the first ballot, with Mar way out in front at 43 per cent, followed by Redford at nine per cent and Morton at eight per cent.
Horner, Orman and Griffiths all polled less than five per cent on the momentum question, while about one in three members didn’t answer.
An examination of the numbers reveals Mar has the broadest appeal provincewide, collecting support from 22 per cent of respondents in Calgary, a whopping 43 per cent in Edmonton and 29 per cent in the rest of Alberta.
Redford is the strongest candidate in Calgary, favoured by 36 per cent of party members polled in the city, compared to 10 per cent in Edmonton and eight per cent outside the two major cities.
“Redford becomes the Calgary candidate in a sense,” Taras said. “It’s a deep mining enterprise in the areas you’re strong.”
Horner, 50, is strong in rural Alberta, where he captured 24 per cent support, compared with 14 per cent in Edmonton and only one per cent in Calgary.
The 62-year-old Morton, whose support base is thought to include a large number of federal Conservatives, polled at 11 per cent in Calgary, seven per cent in the capital city and 13 per cent in the rest of the province.
“It’s the regional weaknesses that we suspected,” Taras said of the candidates’ showings. “If you’re looking at the potential to build, Mar is the only candidate reaching across the province.”
The survey also showed 91 per cent of the party members questioned will definitely or probably cast a ballot in the leadership contest.
The Environics poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95 times out of 100 samples, although regional samples are higher.
See full results here:
Environics — Herald-Journal – PC Leadership – Member Poll – Release September 13 2011
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