MONTREAL – The Quebec election campaign may be a battle between two longstanding rivals, but the result could hinge on a third party that appears to have made inroads in the final stretch of the campaign.
In the early going, Francois Legault’s Coalition Avenir Quebec struggled to get attention while the Parti Quebecois and the Liberals duked it out over the prospect of another referendum.
But recent polls suggest the CAQ, which wants to set aside the sovereignty question to focus on the economy, has climbed in popularity in the past week.
INTERACTIVE MAP: Quebec provincial election ridings
Legault earned favourable reviews for his feisty performance in last Thursday’s televised leaders’ debate, when he came out on the attack against Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard and, particularly, PQ chief Pauline Marois.
Observers point out Legault has appeal for “soft nationalists” who favour a strong stance on language issues and secularism, but are wary of a referendum.
“I suspect most of his support would come from the PQ voters, who are not hardcore sovereigntists who think they have run a terrible campaign,” said Robert Asselin, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa.
A Forum Research poll on Tuesday and an internal poll for the CAQ released to the media on Monday both showed a jump in popularity for the party among francophone voters.
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“If we’re looking at those two polls, and if we take them at face value, it does seem that the CAQ is making gains at the expense of primarily the PQ and also the Liberals,” said Eric Grenier, operator of the polling aggregator site ThreeHundredEight.com.
“It hasn’t been a good last few weeks for the PQ in terms of the campaign, and Legault had a good week.”
Grenier cautioned that the CAQ didn’t release its entire internal poll, which was conducted by the polling firm CROP, making conclusions more difficult to draw.
Still, if the trend continues, the pollster said the Coalition won’t have the poor result predicted earlier in the campaign.
In an update released Wednesday, Grenier projected the CAQ to win four seats (or as many as eight), and said “a complete wipe out of the party is no longer considered plausible.”
The main benefactor of the party’s rise will likely be Couillard, thanks to a split among francophone voters.
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In the remaining days before the April 7 vote, the three biggest parties are expected to focus of their attention on a handful of majority-francophone swing ridings in central Quebec and in the suburbs north and south of Montreal.
The Liberals are also trying to steal away some of the CAQ’s ridings in the Quebec City area.
Like the PQ, the CAQ wants to introduce a secular charter, though it has stated that it wouldn’t go as far as what the PQ has proposed.
Public employees in position of authorities, including teachers, would be banned from wearing obvious religious symbols, while daycare workers would be exempt.
Legault has also taken a strong stance on language, taking Couillard to task during the debate for saying that factory workers would benefit from speaking English.
READ MORE: Referendum talk again features prominently in Quebec leaders’ debate
While Legault toned down those comments in an interview this week with Global News, he stressed the preservation of the French language remains a priority.
“We have to remember that French in North America will always be vulnerable,” he said.
“You cannot accept that in a small company, people will be required to speak English.”
Watch: Extended interview with CAQ leader Francois Legault
The social-democratic party Quebec Solidaire also threatens to steal away votes from the PQ‘s more left-leaning supporters.
Marois took power in 2012 after famously wearing the red square of the student protest movement, but detractors argue her party has veered right in the period since the last election.
The candidacy of media mogul Pierre Karl Peladeau, who has a history of union busting, did not sit well with the party’s pro-labour contingent.
READ MORE: Marois questions timing of fundraising allegations against husband
Asselin, who has previously advised the federal Liberals, cautioned the outcome remains difficult to predict, especially given the uncertainty about the accuracy of some polls.
But he said the allegations that surfaced this week against Marois’ husband won’t help the PQ regain momentum.
“It seems to me at this point that it’s very volatile.”
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