The BC Conservatives could win a majority government in this election if the latest poll numbers hold up and leader Lorne Doerkson could become premier.
The new Ipsos poll, conducted in partnership with Global BC, is the final poll before election day on Oct. 24.
The poll shows the BC Conservatives at 44 per cent, up one point from the last poll, while the BC NDP remain five points behind at 39 per cent, and the BC Green Party stands at 13 per cent, up two points.
“While survey margins of error still leave some room for doubt, Lorne Doerkson is a solid favourite to go from obscurity to premier-elect in the span of just five weeks,” according to the Ipsos poll.
“A BC Conservative victory is by no means a certainty and as always this election will come down to turnout and some last-minute ballot box decisions. B.C. surprised once before and the range of outcomes in this election includes a Conservative majority, a less likely NDP majority and the potential for the Greens to hold a balance of power.”
OneBC support is at two per cent, according to the poll and CentreBC has one per cent support.
These results exclude the 18 per cent (down seven points) of British Columbians who are undecided (12 per cent, down six points) or express no preference (seven per cent, unchanged).
Currently, 15 per cent of voters say there is still a good chance they will change their minds and vote for another party’s candidate at the polling station.
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Voter certainty is about equal for the NDP (14 per cent) and BC Conservatives (13 per cent), according to the poll.
Green Party support is less secure, with 27 per cent saying there is still a good chance they will change their minds when they go to vote.
When it comes to favourability ratings for the party leaders, NDP leader David Eby has remained stable during the campaign. The poll found that he is ending the campaign with 35 per cent favourable impressions and 40 per cent unfavourable impressions.
Doerkson’s ratings are about equal, with 31 per cent favourable and 33 per cent unfavourable.
Views of Green Party leader Emily Lowan have improved over the campaign and she has 30 per cent favourable impressions and 18 per cent unfavourable.
Views of OneBC leader Dallas Brodie are much more unfavourable, at 32 per cent, than favourable at 13 per cent. They have worsened over the campaign.
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Views of CentreBC leader Elenore Sturko are much more unfavourable, at 28 per cent, than favourable at 11 per cent. They have also worsened over the campaign, according to the poll.
Eby continues to lead Doerkson as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best premier, but the gap has narrowed since the last poll, Ipsos said.
The theme of “time for a change” continues to resonate with voters, according to the poll.
A majority, 53 per cent, of residents now believe it is time for another provincial party to take over. Thirty-one per cent continue to say that the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 16 per cent are undecided.
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC from Oct. 20 to 22, 2026. For this survey, a sample of 1,260 adult British Columbians were surveyed online through sample sourced through the Ipsos panel (n=801) and by phone with live interviewers (n=459) using both cellphones and landlines. Data was weighted by B.C. region, age, gender and education, in accordance with Census proportions. The precision of Ipsos polls, including online samples, is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within ±3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Questions asked only of online respondents are accurate to within ±4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
Not looking good for the NDP.
Oh well,Jay Voorhees, Bob B and myself are in a back alley on East Hastings if any other NDPers want to come down and pee in our mouths. No charge tonight considering we are all in mourning over the loss.
Feel free to join us anytime.
Wear protection tonight Jason and don’t come home drunk in a dress again!!!
I don’t want to listen to you telling me you’re pregnant again and not sure who the father is !!!
“Bc resident
October 24, 2026 at 8:17 pm
I’m going to hit East Hasting for a mouthful or two of guy juice right after Eby wins. Then I’m going to bang up some good smack and sleep in an alley with my “Pee on Me” sign.
Should be a great night !!!!”
I’m all in on that train Bc resident !!!
Meet you at our usual spot !!!
I’m going to hit East Hasting for a mouthful or two of guy juice right after Eby wins. Then I’m going to bang up some good smack and sleep in an alley with my “Pee on Me” sign.
Should be a great night !!!!
+1 Javier Milei he’s saving Argentina
Global are going to vomit tonight when they will have to admit they were wrong.
I say more than 60 seats but with NDP dirty tricks you never know.
It’s funny hearing all the things people are saying about the Conservatives. It reminds me of when Javier Milei was running for president of Argentina. They said he would destroy the country and he would cut services and make life terrible. He was elected and lowered the poverty rate, brought in the country’s first fiscal surplus since 2008 and inflation fell sharply. He is seen as one of the best leaders of the modern world. It is possible to run a government without going deeper into debt.
I’m hoping the Conservatives win. Only because of people like Jay Voorhees and BC Resident. Maybe they won’t be so smug and hateful come Sunday.
@anonymous. Vote splitting is ruining your utopian socialist paradise? Gawd. You can’t see the decline the NDP wrecked upon the province? You really need to check your meds
The Conservatives are rebranded Liberals as BC is incapable of actual conservatism but it’ll be better than Eby
Its voting day! Get out and vote! Time to get rid of the NDP and the scourge they have been to BC for almost 10 long years! Time to take back our province from the NDP and the FN! Vote Con. leave the rest in the dust. We need to knock the Green numbers down so no coalition can be formed. Its time for a CON majority!
Eby’s gonna shoot himself tomorrow!!
I’m I ok? Lol….Your the guys voting for someone who can’t even accept the job! I’m I ok….?! Lol…check the mirror.
I voted conservative. Just like I did in 2024. I wasn’t fond of Rustad, but saw the impending train wreck of more ndp lead years. The deterioration of our healthcare system, debt, bloated administration and increasing regulations. Not to mention the activism this administration seems hellbent on pushing through, ignoring the majority of citizens. Of course I was a proven right. Mass resignations of doctors, another one only yesterday in the Okanagan has been the canary in the coal mines. I can’t believe the ndp has any support left. Only those with weakness that causes them to believe the hyperbole coming out of the ndp camp. They can’t run on their merit and track record, so they sink as low as possible and spread mistruths and unsavoury history.
Green and NPD splitting their votes, and you get Rightwing ideology. A lot Cons are hiding their old racists posts. They will be come out once in power. The green are the most to suffer.
What the NDP did by sheltering the most expensive taxable revenue generating houses in BC from the speculation and vacancy taxes is enough for me to not vote for them.
are you OK bro?
You guys are just a just a cult in the Conservatives and you simply stay within the cult. It’s not reality based on fact you just simply support each other and tell each other how wonderful you are! Like that will fix the problem( s). Isn’t there another ostrich farm that needs a bouncy castle setup?!
hoping for a con victory, the ndp needs the boot, most useless government this province has ever seen
Pretty rough this week…Albertans gonna take a beating twice in 6 days. What does that do for your confidence in attempted takeovers? Have you tried Inuvik? Maybe better luck there?!
Mostly union members and government employees plus a few seniors who just don’t know better.
Don’t worry, the NDP have their fraud plan in order. They’re going to wait till the final vote count day to count the mail-in ballots.
Green Party is a bunch of activists started in the seventies
Mike Smith, I think those are basically old folks that are in cognitive decline and can’t be bothered to change anything in their lives, even for the better. They’re the most likely to fall for the NDP’s “watch out for Trump” garbage and forget about the NDP’s record the last 9 years. My grandparents are (or I should say were) part of that group. Luckily for all of us, there aren’t enough of them to elect the NDP again.
Who are the 31% that think the NDP have done a good job and deserve re-election??? Really should be a minimum IQ test before the right vote.
Common sense would say, wasting billions on sky train to Langley and UBC, along with cost over-rides and not building ferries here, using that money for health care and seniors is a far better choice.
What Eby did with the property tax deferment interest rate was enough for me not to vote for him.
NDP has been in desperation mode for nearly a month. Nothing but attack ads, mud slinging, 500+ promises that will never be kept, and Trump-this Trump-that MAGA-this MAGA-that. No wonder everyone is sick of them. They can’t run on their record because they’ve been horrible. Happy to see them go!
“BC Conservatives”
Hilarious! Just a lighter shade of red…maybe.
The DRIPA thing was enough for me alone. Messing with our property rights? Get the hell outa here NDP!
As I type this now, even CBC doesn’t have a single story on tomorrow’s BC election. Why? They know it’s not even going to be close, so they aren’t wasting a story slot on there trying to attack the Cons. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Even Global’s liberal biased ISOP poll has the Conservatives leading.
Please let it be right and let this be an end to this NDP dumpster fire .
I don’t think 3-weeks of post-election ballot stuffing in Surrey will save you this time Eby. You’re losing too many seats. Go apply for EI, and I hope you kept those $10 daycare spots you and your doctor wife gladly took.
My daughter and her fiancé were indifferent about voting. I change her mind with this one text.
“Hey make sure you vote and vote conservative. If you want anything left for your inheritance we need to get rid of Eby and NDP.”
Her response was “understood they have our vote then. Most our friends are voting conservative anyway” They are all in there 20s .
Remember him and Sussman going on and on last election? Now that guy is running for NDP in Saanich south!
Walter is correct. Keith Baldry is a well known NDP shill that Global loves giving voice to come election time. He won’t change anyone’s mind here though. The NDP are done for. Skyrocketing cost of living, nosediving healthcare standards, ER’s closing down, DRIPA, $14 billion deficit, crime, and on and on. And then there’s their opportunistic leader, Daycare Dave Eby and all his lies and false promises, and the dirty calling of a snap election during Municipals and when he already had a Majority. Bye bye dippers!
I managed to convince my grandparents today to vote blue. They seem to be the only cohort still supporting continuing this madness, for what reasons I cannot comprehend. Was easy after we talked about that letter they received from the pro-NDP doctor in the envelope formatted to look like it came from Elections BC. That and they hadn’t heard of Eby taking the $10 daycare seats.
Keith Baldry is another NDP hack who should be ignored.
BC Cons 60 seats NDP 30 Green 3
You heard it here first!
You asked for it Eby!! 🤣🤣
Forget about Global and their constant reliance on one poll. The Cons are winning in EVERY poll out there. 338Canada aggregates all polls and has them winning 57+ seats. They’ve never been wrong this close to election day.
In summary, the NDP have already lost. Con Majority coming in. And it’s the NDP and lying Eby’s own fault. The only question remaining is who will the NDP replace Eby with?
NDP – No damn plan but ruining BC fiscally, giving land to lazy chugs & stalling resource projects .
If you are a lazy drug addicted, social assistance scummer vote Eby