On Monday, Albertans voted in a provincewide referendum that could have important consequences for Canada’s future. But the question attracting the most attention may not be the one that matters most.
The tenth question asked Albertans whether they want to remain in Canada or take the next step toward separation. As of the time of writing, only a quarter of Alberta voters opted for another referendum. Three-quarters opted against another referendum and said they wanted to remain in Canada.
But results from the other nine questions may tell a more interesting story. All but Question 10 garnered majority support. Ipsos polling for Global News also found that Canadians outside Alberta supported eight of the nine proposals by majority. Albertans may have rejected separation for now, but they also endorsed an agenda for changing Canada that has considerable support elsewhere in the country.
Prime Minister Mark Carney seems to understand the message he received. At a rally in Calgary on October 15, he urged Albertans to reject the other nine questions with the slogan “No to the Nine.” Carney wasn’t simply campaigning against separation. He was taking a position against proposals that could reshape our country.
The remaining nine questions cover two broad areas. The first five concern immigration and access to public services. They propose greater provincial control over immigration, lower immigration levels, employment preferences and restrictions on access to publicly funded services for temporary residents. They also address proof of citizenship for provincial voting.
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The other four concern the federal system itself. They propose provincial control over appointments to superior courts, abolition of the Senate, the right to opt out of federal programs without losing funding and provincial laws taking precedence over federal laws in areas of provincial or shared jurisdiction.
Some proposals would require constitutional changes. Others could be addressed through existing legislation. None automatically becomes law even though Albertans voted for them. But majority support has given Premier Danielle Smith justification to pursue them.
Quebec’s recent election adds another layer. Voters there have just elected a sovereigntist Parti Québécois government. Alberta and Quebec have different objectives, but both could find common cause in demanding greater provincial autonomy. Ottawa could soon face demands from two provinces with very different motivations seeking fundamental changes to Confederation.
For the past year, Donald Trump’s trade war against Canada has dominated Canadian politics. The threat from Washington has encouraged Canadians to rally around the flag. But national unity in the face of an external threat hasn’t eliminated the disagreements within Canada.
One of the most persistent has been the conflict between Alberta and Ottawa. It intensified during the Trudeau years, particularly over energy and environmental policy. For many Albertans, the dispute became a question of whether Ottawa was treating their province fairly.
Carney has tried to change that relationship. His support for a new pipeline to tidewater represents a significant departure from the direction many Albertans associated with the previous Liberal government. But a pipeline remains a promise until it is built. Alberta’s demands for greater provincial autonomy extend well beyond energy.
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A poll can show support for a proposal, but it doesn’t reflect support for the negotiations required to make it happen. Canadians may like abolishing the Senate without agreeing on what should replace it. They may favour greater provincial autonomy without wanting to reopen the Constitution.
But dismissing these results would miss the point. The public opinion exists, and it isn’t confined to Alberta. What’s missing is a political agenda capable of bringing these attitudes together. Monday’s referendum could be a step in that direction.
This creates a dilemma for Carney. Albertans rejected separation, so he can rightfully celebrate a victory for Canadian unity. But they endorsed eight of the other questions, which means he could face a disruptive provincial government with a renewed mandate to challenge Ottawa on issues that resonate across the country. And with an ally in Quebec’s sovereigntist government in Quebec.
Given our Prime Minister’s apparent fondness for seeing his current assignment in Churchillian terms, it seems appropriate to borrow a line from the man himself. Following the British victory at El Alamein in 1942, Churchill observed that it was not the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning.
The Alberta referendum could mark a similar turning point in the debate over Canada’s future. Is it the beginning of the end of Alberta’s confrontation with Ottawa, or merely the end of the beginning of a much broader debate about how Canada should work?
That remains to be seen. But Canadians would make a serious mistake if we confuse this vote against separation with acceptance of the status quo. On the contrary. The message from Albertans is that their grievances are real, and there remain nine questions in search of a meaningful response.
Darrell Bricker is Chairman of Ipsos Canada
not another referendum on separation, smith promises.
well then, she should start by dropping her appeal on the judgement on the first attempt by the separatists to hold one which was blocked by a very astute judge.
Carney talks values all the time but mainly when it suits his own personal agenda and benefit.
As PM, he should respect democracy and take into consideration what Alberta’s want.
Instead, his agenda involves joining The EU and adopting their regulations for oil and gas and that is not what Alberta needs.
The new pipeline is a future promise. Carney’s credibility hangs in the air. Real results are needed.
Respectfully, white Canadians are by large rightfully called racists and bigots. The Liberals’ support for increased immigration is to be commended, and any form of diversity should be applauded. What is needed is to break the white wash and rebuild this country from the bottom up, attract foreign investment and rebrand Canada as a multicultural powerhouse. There will be some struggles and major changes along the way, but you don’t need a house to live in, nor do you need to vacation every single year. The luxury lifestyles are what have ruined you. You should rent like they do and remember it is for the good of humanity.
The Albertan tail always trying to wag the Canadian dog. One person, one vote doesn’t mean anything to many in this, the wealthiest of provinces. One dollar, one vote is their mantra. At least Quebec separatists had legitimate historical and cultural grievances; in Alberta, it’s all about the money and destroying Canada for their US backers.
@best639pm, did it ever cross your little mind that a whole BUNCH of people have zero respect for ben and don’t like his naive comments, ben doesn’t enter into my reptilian brain
So sad to see what country has become over my lifespan, I give up, nothing I can do to save it, I TAP OUT
My IQ is room temperature so I can’t debate.
Your own biases media outlet has already downplayed these ‘messages’ saying they narrowly passed. They didn’t in many cases. Canada requires change. Carney is already maneuvering to ignore the message. Further. He disrespected the Constitution and the provinces where he proclaimed ‘the primacy or Parliament’. This is simply untrue: the Constitution clearly spells out responsibilities where the provinces are equal partners in Confederation. Wanna sign that EU ‘association’? Prepare to get constitutional amendment formula very busy. No one ceded their sovereignty to you on many toplcs.
Can we start an actual poll here? Like how many Canadians hate Muslims but welcome immigration from non-muslim countries? I just want Canada to be towel-head-free. I love black people, Hispanics, Chinese, phillipinos… But the Muslims have no place in Canada, nor the rest of the world. When the world sees white people as racists, let it be known that we love you- so long as you’re not a Muslim nor have a towel wrappers around your head.
Of course people want to remain in Canada. But maybe the Liberals would be wise to heed the message here. Left wing lunacy is not wanted here. It’s time for the left to moderate. If the liberals keep pushing too far to the left, it’s only inevitable that there will be a counter swing to the right and we find ourselves facing separation again.
One can genuinely sympathize with a particular commenter who is so consumed by anger and obsession that they behave like a child having a tantrum. They talk about cucumbers and other such nonsense in relation to me which is a little strange, but who am I to judge? In any case, it’s a level of unrestrained rage and obsession that is both troubling and, sadly, detrimental to their own well being. My hope is they can find the inner strength to focus elsewhere.
It needs to be full stop on immigration….too many homeless ….too many don’t have jobs and I’m not talking the ones who took basket weaving in college and can’t understand why no one is paying them 150000 dollars…..when everyone has a job and everyone has a place to live then you can consider immigration and not before
Alberta voted against any leverage they had in negotiating the other 9! The last 11 years people have been complaining about the 9 but with no threat of consequences the liberals have never cared or ever will start to care! Alberta will never be anything more than a piggybank from here on out.
The real message are the first 5 points that everyone votes YES on
Yes on no more immigration policies set by Ottawa , yes for healthcare and social services free only for Canadians
Read them. A big legislation to come totally within the purview of a provincial premier
Speaking of Churchillian terms, Churchill was an alcoholic fat slob who got way too much credit for winning a war he never fought in and he got booted out of power as soon as the war ended. For all the talk of sovereignty when are Canadians going get an identity and stop blowing the UK and France
I expect the pipeline promise will disappear and the Federal Government will give Alberta the middle finger to the other questions.
But that is what the majority of Albertans wanted.
Elbows Up!!!
Thank you for a nice decent article about the situation. I don’t usually read your stuff but this was well written compared to the way CBC words things.
I’m proud of Alberta and Quebec to try to get more control over their province but I do want them both to stay. Its obvious that the politicians in Ottawa does not really care about the rest of Canada so more province control is the way to go!
Anonymous @6:21pm.
Anonymous the village idiot. Everyone can see it”s you. Just because you can’t compete with Ben doesn’t give you the right to try and impersonate him when your angry…..just be yourself. Simple and Stupid.
Mah name is ash auh Ashley, Ben. Mah reading comprehension is low and my love of liberal social hand outs is huge.
Ben cant understand the difference between a need for targeted immigration, mass immigration, and no immigration.
The questions do not say we want no immigration but the words are sow meny and so big.
This is analysis? I’m sorry just no. And it was Smith who asked at one point for more immigrants from the feds. We need more immigrants as our birth rate is low and certain jobs need to be filled, eg. Nurses, construction workers to build houses, etc.
She and Christy Clark can start a podcast together…..can call it the traitorous ex premier podcast!
@Rich
What would you need to see to accept that the country is fed up with high kevels of immigration? More provincial referendums? Maybe a national one?
Danielle will soon be back on the radio or working at Tim Hortons. Never in history has an attempted and failed mutiny or coup allowed the person to keep their position or job. They are either imprisoned, killed or forced to WALK THE PLANK!!! ( also exiled)
The author can’t legitimately conclude that there is support for the 9 questiond based on the Ipsos poll. There isn’t much of a majority in favour of most of them coming out of the referendum. It’d be better for the Feds to explain why the 9 posed by Danni were dog whistle questions for her base and not valid proposals for change. This could be part of a campaign to counter the separatist disinformation that fed the alleged grievances for so long. Time to go back to the Plan B that Chretien used so effectively against the Quebec separatists.
Dani’s party has been faltering recently and should nosedive shortly. Anyone proposing to be further right than her will fail to resurrect the party at that point. They’re done!
Finally , someone gets it . Ottawa needs to start listening to the province’s or there will be a massive collapse . Gone are the days of Ottawa dictating , the people have spoken , thank God
I don’t think anyone really minds immigration or multiculturalism as a whole. The problem is gov only wants immigration from majority-islamic countries. These people are not our friends, they work against the good values this country was built on and used to stand for. They hate us. But otherwise, I’m sure there’s plenty of people from other countries in Asia/Africa/Europe that want to live here too, and we’re all for it. This country needs them. But please, NO MORE MUSLIMS!!!
Great to have a NO for separation but disturbing that questions regarding immigration showed concerns. So many countries seem to be attacking immigration issues. God help us if we go to the extreme of Trump and his ICE! Humanity must continue with morals, ethics and the values we so fight for and protect in our constitutions.