With only two losses in their first 10 games, the Montreal Canadiens are one of the early pleasant surprises of the NHL.
Yet their opposition on Thursday night, the Arizona Coyotes, is also a team that is joyfully surprising their fans.
In their last home game, the Coyotes beat the Chicago Blackhawks 8-1. On Thursday night, they beat the Canadiens at Mullett Arena, 3-2.
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GM Kent Hughes showed excellent wisdom when he reached out to re-sign Sean Monahan in the off-season. Monahan was strong last season with six goals in 25 games before breaking his foot to be lost for the season. It would be easy to think that Monahan is injury-prone or that his still-young body is too old for the game.
Yet Monahan is playing like he did before both of his hips broke down requiring major surgery. Monahan has six goals on the season, including four goals in his last six games. He has in 10 games reached his total of last season in 25 games.
It isn’t just the goals that Monahan is providing. He is one of the league’s best at face-offs, and he’s the driving force for one of the best lines in the NHL analytically. Yes, you read that right. Monahan, Brendan Gallagher, and Tanner Pearson are rocking a 59 per cent Corsi as one of the best in the league.
As a result, Hughes has interesting options if the line stays healthy. Monahan and Pearson could both fetch strong returns at the trading deadline — that is, if the Canadiens aren’t in a playoff race themselves. That sounds far-fetched to write for consumption, but the record is the record, and the Canadiens lost only two times in regulation in their first nine games.
The demise of Gallagher is also exaggerated. He had a horrific camp, but perhaps at his age, he understands there’s not a lot to prove in camp. Gallagher made a key play on the Monahan goal in the first period. It was his hard work that freed Monahan to take it from centre. Gallagher tied the contest at two with a superb shot to the top corner from 15 feet.
Pearson also showed strong work on the goal as he went hard to the net, taking a defender with him. It was enjoyable to watch all of that experienced work, which demonstrated an understanding of how to break down a defence on an even-man rush to create a good scoring chance.
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The Canadiens suffered another injury when Rafael Harvey-Pinard went down with an apparent right knee injury. It will be learned shortly how serious it is, but it didn’t seem as if it were a big issue. The first line needs a right winger, if Harvey-Pinard can’t play Saturday.
That’s the same night in St. Louis that Christian Dvorak is expected to return. He would take the centre position on the second line. That would push Alex Newhook to the wing where he belongs, and Josh Anderson would stay on the other side.
If Harvey-Pinard is injured, that would give Juraj Slafkovsky a chance on the top line perhaps, or Anderson could go back to the top line where he has played this season.
Whatever combinations the head coach chooses, the Newhook line must be broken up. They had an eight Corsi share after two periods in Arizona. It’s nearly impossible to do as bad as eight.
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Whether to send Juraj Slafkovsky to the minors gets analyzed like it’s a difficult decision. Yet if one steps back from the vested interest of being either a fan or the one who drafted him, the numbers are difficult to debate.
In 10 games, Slafkovsky has 10 shots. To have essentially a shot-per-game, with a standard 10 per cent shooting percentage, is to have an eight-goal season. Last year, Slafkovsky also had a shot-per-game, with 42 shots in 39 games. He scored four times. Same pace.
Shots aren’t everything, but for a forward, they are a huge indicator of a likely goal total. They are also a good indicator, if a player is around the net and creating. Of the 10 shots in nine games he has taken, none have been a high-danger chance.
It isn’t as if he is not being given chances. Slafkovsky takes a regular shift on the club’s second line. He also gets the second power play shift. He’s been given opportunities.
Slafkovsky plays with Alex Newhook and Josh Anderson. Newhook will eventually be a winger. That’s where he belongs. The injury to Kirby Dach was catastrophic for Slafkovsky as his play has fallen off without the club’s centre who has the best ability to exit the defensive zone and enter the offensive one.
Newhook, Anderson, and Slafkovsky spend a lot of time in their own zone. A better development would be to play with veteran Sean Monahan. He would insulate Slafkovsky better than Newhook by a large margin.
The line is getting caved in statistically. Slafkovsky-Newhook-Anderson have a 35 per cent share in expected goals. They are the 100th-ranked line of 108 lines (minimum 30 minutes) tried so far this season in the NHL.
However, head coach Martin St. Louis’ job can’t only be, how does he help Slafkovsky to the detriment of the overall ambitions? The Canadiens are playing well. He doesn’t have a lot of options with the Dach injury. His best line is Monahan with Brendan Gallagher and Tanner Pearson with a 54 per cent share in expected goals. Nick Suzuki’s line has a 48 share, and they play the opposition’s best most of the time, so that is respectable.
The AHL is not punishment. When young players go to the minors, they have a chance to get the puck on their stick repeatedly. They have more time and space. They develop their game. This is not a slight on Slafkovsky. Every player coming out of the draft, except a talent like Connor Bedard, should begin in the minors where they can own the puck enough to develop their skill set.
Historically, there are hundreds of examples of excellent development in the AHL. In the interest of time, let’s mention only one, Leon Draisaitl, who after two goals in 37 games in Edmonton as a 19-year-old was dispatched back to Kelowna, then Bakersfield. Draisaitl turned out fairly well in the end. He didn’t have his confidence shattered. In fact, it elevated in lower leagues as he grew his game. If the plea is patience with Slafkovsky, then perfect: nothing says patience better than letting a player cook in the AHL.
It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall in the offices of Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton. Gorton spoke on TSN recently, saying that there is more to the game than shots and goals. That will never be argued flatly, but it can be disputed with nuance. To suggest that touches and puck battles is sufficient is to suggest that the game is not ultimately counted in terms of shots that go in nets.
Here is the sequential order of development for every forward playing hockey in the game’s history:
- puck battles
- touches
- passes/shots
- goals
First, Slafkovsky must learn how to battle for the puck. If he wins it, he gets a touch. If he keeps that touch for a possession, he has the option of passing it or shooting, and hopefully for him, he or someone else can put that attempt in the net.
He is battling better, but he can also battle with strong people in Laval. He is touching it more, but he can touch it much more in Laval. When he gets more touches there, he then shoots more, and scores more. This is the foundation of all-phase development.
Every player is best served doing all of these things well in one league, then moving up to the next league.
Slafkovsky has not shown that he should have skipped a league. Nothing in his play says he should have gone straight to the NHL.
The shot total doesn’t say it. The expected goals number doesn’t say it. The actual goal total certainly doesn’t say it. His Corsi doesn’t say it. The eye test doesn’t say it.
Hope says it. Hope is not player development. Laval is.