The “Field Position Battle”. We hear about it on every football broadcast and coaches talk endlessly about winning it. But how much is it really worth?
If our punter (and punt coverage) nets us five yards more than the other team, is that a big deal? If we concede a single point and take the ball at the 35, did we gain or lose?
To answer some of these questions we should consider that every starting position on the field comes with an expected value. In short, expected value is how many points an average team can expect to score on a drive starting at a certain point on the field.
Using the game reports from every Canada West regular season game from 2007-2012 I’ve tracked more than 5,500 possessions–where they started and what the result was. For the purposes of this any drive where a team was not trying to score (ie. running out the clock at the end of a half) was ignored.
There are six possible results to a drive:
- We score a touchdown (+7)
- We kick a field goal (+3)
- We get a single (+1)
- No points scored
- We give up a safety (-2)
- We give up a touchdown (-7)
In this, all touchdowns are worth seven points. The decision to go for two, or if an extra point is missed, has been treated as independent.
Sifting through six years of data it shows that gaining possession on our own 40-yard line is worth 1.18 points. At midfield, possession is worth 2.1 points. If we’re unlucky enough to start a drive on our own 3-yard line that is worth -0.78 points (starting a possession there costs us points through safeties or defensive touchdowns).
So how much is better field position worth? Referring to the previous hypothetical of our punt team getting five extra yards per punt, on average those five yards are worth 0.19 points.
Some decisions in the CIS game mean a difference of 15 yards. The average value of 15 yards is 0.63 points.
So if our punt team is 5 yards better than the opposition and each team punted 10 times in a game (a high number admittedly), that would be an extra 1.9 points per game in our favour.
Compiling six years of data has opened my eyes to decisions like:
- After a field goal should we make them kick off? Or should we take it at the 35?
- Should our punt returner kneel in the end zone? Or should he take a chance, knowing that (barring a penalty or fumble) we’ll at least get the ball at the 20?
- Should we give up the safety? Or punt away from our own 10?
Those questions will be answered in future columns. I’ll tease you a little bit by saying that in Canada West football it is almost never correct to give up a safety instead of punting. That finding is something I hadn’t expected to see.
Just so I say it at least once: Analyzing numbers can never replace good, smart coaches. The time left in the game, the score difference, the quality of our offense vs. their defense, injuries…virtually dozens of factors go into making “gut” decisions. My hope with all this research is to give coaches better info to make those gut decisions.
Over the next few weeks there is plenty more to discuss about what I’ve learned from all this research. I would love to hear from coaches, players and other numbers people about what these numbers say to you. And perhaps what other decisions should be examined.
NEXT WEEK: When it’s good and bad to take it at the 35.
I would love to hear your thoughts for future research, things you’ve found or any insight. Comment below or contact me directly at derek.taylor@globalnews.ca
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