LAS VEGAS – O.J. Simpson’s bid for release from a Nevada prison will depend not only on what he tells parole officials and a report they will review, but on how they measure the danger he poses to the public.
The board uses an 11-point risk assessment , awarding a range of points for each factor, from -1 to 2, to reach a score that groups parole candidates as low, medium or high risk to commit another crime. The lower the number, the greater the likelihood of release.
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Simpson was granted parole in 2013 on a kidnapping charge after receiving a total score of 3 points, which made him low-risk. The board’s decision left Simpson with four years to serve on other charges before reaching his minimum time behind bars.
Scores of 6-11 points rank as medium risk. Twelve or more points reflect high risk.
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Here are the risk factors that parole officials will consider Thursday and how Simpson will likely score:
AGE AT FIRST ARREST
Teens score highest risk; inmates 24 or older, lowest.
Simpson sometimes told of being arrested as a teenager with a group of other youths in San Francisco and telling police his name was Burt Lancaster.
He was 41 when he was arrested in January 1989 for injuring then-wife Nicole Brown Simpson in a domestic argument. He pleaded no contest to spousal abuse.
He was 46 when he was arrested in 1994 after a slow-speed chase on Los Angeles-area freeways following the killings of his ex-wife and her friend, Ronald Goldman. He was acquitted of murder in 1995.
The Nevada parole board in 2013 set Simpson’s score at 0 points.
PRIOR PROBATION OR PAROLE GETTING REVOKED
Simpson has none.
His score: 0 points.
EMPLOYMENT HISTORY PRIOR TO ARREST
Simpson collects a pension from the National Football League, and retirement counts as full-time employment.
His score: 0 points.
Offence TYPE
Simpson was convicted in Las Vegas in 2008 of kidnapping, armed robbery, assault with a deadly weapon, burglary and conspiracy. Nevada considers robbery and burglary as property offences.
His score: 2 points.
HISTORY OF DRUG OR ALCOHOL ABUSE
The parole board in 2013 faulted Simpson for alcohol use before his arrest, amounting to “serious disruption of functioning.”
His score: 2 points.
GENDER
Men receive 1 point, and women, 0 points because data reflects that men are more likely than women to commit another crime.
Simpson’s score: 1 point.
AGE
Nevada subtracts 1 point for parole candidates 41 or older. Simpson is 70.
His score: -1 point.
ACTIVE GANG MEMBERSHIP
Being part of a gang adds 2 points. There have been no reports that Simpson has associated with gangs in prison.
His score: 0 points.
TREATMENT PROGRAMS
Completing an educational, vocational or treatment program subtracts 1 point. Simpson has said he has counselled other inmates, but the board in 2013 gave him 0 points.
His score: 0 points.
DISCIPLINARY CONDUCT
Repeated misconduct can earn 2 points, while a clean record for a year can subtract 1 point. Prison officials say Simpson has not had any disciplinary write-ups, and in 2013, he received -1 point.
His score: -1 point.
CUSTODY LEVEL
Medium-security inmates like Simpson earn 0 points.
His score: 0 points.
SIMPSON’S LIKELY FINAL TALLY: 3 points.
Commissioners also will consider letters of support and opposition, comments from his lawyer and a worksheet of guidelines listing 15 or more aggravating and 12 or more mitigating factors that are assessed according to a set of defined rules .
The seven-member board has six members and one vacancy. A majority decision by four board members would grant Simpson parole. A 3-3 tie would bring Simpson back for another hearing in six months.
If an inmate is granted parole, the board can impose conditions on the release.
Simpson has earned sentencing credits and time off for good behaviour, cutting his 33-year maximum sentence by more than half. If he is granted parole, he could be out of prison as early as Oct. 1.
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