Advertisement

Reality check: Do Trump’s reasons for leaving the Paris climate accord add up?

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the Paris climate agreement, which saw over 190 countries pledge to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions.

World leaders condemned the action, calling it a mistake and a disappointment.

Trump’s reasons varied from economic nationalism to his views on other countries’ contributions relative to the U.S.

Here’s a look at what he said:

TRUMP: China doesn’t have to lower emissions until 2025

“Under the agreement, China will be able to increase these emissions by a staggering number of years — 13. They can do whatever they want for 13 years. Not us. India makes its participation contingent on receiving billions and billions and billions of dollars in foreign aid from developed countries.”

Story continues below advertisement

IN REALITY: China and India, as developing countries, have a lower per-capita emission

Trump is correct in saying China is allowed to increase its emissions over the next 13 years, but they have still committed to lowering their per capita emissions.

So while China’s still the biggest producer of CO2 emissions, that’s because of the billions of people who live there.

“Per capita, [China’s] emissions of CO2 is a tiny fraction of those of the U.S.,” Kurt Hübner, director of the Institute for European Studies at UBC, said.

WATCH: Theresa May says UK still pledged to Paris Accord despite Trump’s withdrawal

Click to play video: 'Theresa May says UK still pledged to Paris Accord despite Trump’s withdrawal'
Theresa May says UK still pledged to Paris Accord despite Trump’s withdrawal

“They are not up in terms of consumption, you know, they don’t drive three cars. They don’t have those huge mansions,” he explained, while pointing out that Canada’s per capita emissions are also quite high.

Story continues below advertisement

But since countries like China and India aren’t as developed as Canada and the U.S., Hübner says that gives them the “right to get longer periods of transition before they start to reduce the per capita levels.”

Breaking news from Canada and around the world sent to your email, as it happens.

That doesn’t mean they’re not doing anything, or that their emissions are out of control.

Part of China’s commitment to the accord was to increase their share of renewable energy – which Hübner says has increased since the agreement.

“It tells us there are efforts [from China] to improve the situation.”

TRUMP: Study said as much as 2.7 million job losses

“[The agreement] could cost America as much as 2.7 million lost jobs by 2025 according to the National Economic Research Associates.”
Story continues below advertisement

IN REALITY: Economists say the jobs that will be created are equal to or more than the job losses.

Economists say the agreement would likely help create about as many jobs in renewable energy as it might cost in polluting industries.

Should the United States pull out of the pact and seek to protect old-school jobs in coal and oil, it would risk losing the chance to lead the world in developing environmentally friendly technology – and generate the jobs that come with it.

“Withdrawing from the Paris agreement is hardly going to create jobs in the U.S.,” Cary Coglianese, professor at the University of Pennsylvania, told the Associated Press,.

”While specific environmental regulations can sometimes lead to job losses, they also can and do lead to job gains – with the result being roughly a wash.”

TRUMP: Puts U.S. natural resources like coal under ‘lock-and-key’

“We have among the most abundant energy reserves on the planet, sufficient to lift millions of America’s poorest workers out of poverty. Yet, under this agreement, we are effectively putting these reserves under lock and key.”

Story continues below advertisement

IN REALITY: The Paris agreement isn’t legally binding

Each country came up with their own goals, and from a legal point of view, nobody is forcing them to meet those goals, Hübner explained.

While Trump “rightly referred to the fact that in the last couple of years, reductions have happened in the US by about 18 per cent of 2005 levels, it has very much to do with the fact that we see in fracking and all those new technologies in shale gas.”

The U.S. coal industry was in decline long before the Paris accord was signed in 2015. The primary cause has been competition from cleaner-burning natural gas, which has been made cheaper and more abundant by hydraulic fracturing.

“He can tell the world whatever he wants to tell, there is no way coal can make any type of comeback,” Hübner said.

Click to play video: 'France’s Macron calls Trump’s decision to opt out of climate change pact a ‘mistake’'
France’s Macron calls Trump’s decision to opt out of climate change pact a ‘mistake’

TRUMP: Paris agreement would only reduce Global temp by .2 C

“Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented in full, with total compliance from all nations, it is estimated it would only produce a two-tenths of one degree Celsius reduction in global temperature by the year 2100”

Story continues below advertisement

IN REALITY: Paris agreement is trying to lower rate of climate change, not global temperature

The claim was attributed to research conducted by MIT, according to White House documents seen by Reuters.

But MIT officials told Reuters say Trump misunderstood and inaccurately portrayed the information.

“We certainly do not support the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris agreement,” said Erwan Monier, a lead researcher at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, and one of the study’s authors.

“If we don’t do anything, we might shoot over 5 degrees or more and that would be catastrophic,” said John Reilly, the co-director of the program, adding that MIT’s scientists had had no contact with the White House and were not offered a chance to explain their work.

With files from the Assocaited Press and Reuters

Sponsored content

AdChoices