Nova Scotia’s teachers dispute throws uncertainty into McNeil’s popularity: Pollster

Premier Stephen McNeil‘s domination of public opinion polls could be at risk after his government closed schools to students, according to a public opinion researcher.

Don Mills, chairman and CEO of Corporate Research Associates, says the last seven days could have “changed things significantly” for the Liberals.

READ MORE: Nova Scotia premier defends actions against teachers, negotiating style

On Saturday Education Minister Karen Casey announced the government would close schools to students and impose a contract on members of the Nova Scotia Teachers Union. Casey said the department had to do this because the government and school board superintendents were concerned about student safety when teachers started a work-to-rule campaign.

Initially the government said the schools would reopen once the legislated contract passed through the legislature, but on Monday the government reversed course. Saying the safety concerns had been addressed. It reopened schools Tuesday and hit pause on legislating a contract but didn’t rule it out in the future.

READ MORE: Government holds off on imposing contract on Nova Scotia teachers

The move sparked widespread protests at schools, the legislature, and on social media.

Mills said this soon after the controversy it’s “hard to predict” how it will play out in the long run, but it’s “likely” not good for the government.

“There’s a high likelihood that it hasn’t helped (the government) in their standing, but how much I don’t know,” he said. “A few percentage points is okay, if it goes down 20 then that’s a big deal coming into an election year.”

Tweet This Click to share quote on Twitter: "There's a high likelihood that it hasn't helped (the government) in their standing, but how much I don't know," he said. "A few percentage points is okay, if it goes down 20 then that's a big deal coming into an election year."

His firm surveyed Nova Scotians about their political preferences in November, prior to the more controversial actions taken by the government. Released on Tuesday, it shows the Liberals maintaining 56 per cent support among decided voters. The poll is accurate ± 3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

READ MORE: Nova Scotia public split on who to support in teachers dispute: poll

Despite the new uncertainty, Mills said McNeil’s message on the province’s finances and his hard line on public sector wages has traction among Nova Scotians.

“His plan for a return to fiscal health is really one that he’s been very consistent on, and I think that message has found a pretty good ear in the province.”

Mills said the education issue is key for roughly 30 per cent of households who have children in the school system but its not as big of an issue for other people, especially older people.