Southern Alberta is the driest it has been in three to six years, according to Alberta Agriculture. They have also said that this was the warmest February in 50 years.
Farmers like Roy Newman, who lives east of High River, are keeping a close eye on the situation.
Newman raises cattle and grows grain, and he has already noticed grass sprouting in his pastures, which he says is not a good thing to see in the first two weeks of March.
“When plants are growing, you know that Mother Nature in southern Alberta is going to give you another cold snap,” Newman said, adding that a serious cold snap would end up killing the new growth and negatively affect the cycle.
Newman also said that this is not a critical situation yet, that a little bit of moisture could go a long way.
When asked about the likelihood of that happening, Global Calgary weather anchor Paul Dunphy said that the latest El Niño update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests that the El Niño we are experiencing could begin to weaken soon.
“The majority of forecast models agree that while we are still in a strong El Niño, it should begin to weaken by late spring to early summer bringing us to more neutral conditions. Historically this pattern will lead us into a La Niña by fall. La Niña usually produces conditions opposite to an El Niño.”
NOAA data backs that up, showing that 11 of the past 15 El Niño events have been followed by a strong La Niña.
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