October 13, 2015 4:08 pm
Updated: January 21, 2016 5:52 pm

Liberals jump out to 6 point lead ahead of Conservatives in latest Ipsos poll

WATCH: Our latest poll shows the Liberals appear to be surging ahead of the Conservatives. Eric Sorensen looks at where and why the Liberals are making gains.


With less than a week to go, the federal election campaign is heading into the home stretch and the Liberals are now six points ahead of the Conservatives, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.

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“At the national level the Liberals have surged ahead to 37 per cent, the Conservatives have remained steady at about 31 per cent. But where the big change has happened is with the NDP,” whose support continues to drop, said Ipsos senior vice-president John Wright.

READ MORE: Liberals lead latest seat projections, slightly ahead of Tories

The Liberals were the only party trending upwards according to the latest numbers, and Trudeau received 37 per cent of the decided vote, up five points from last week. The Conservative party would receive 31 per cent of the vote (down two points) if an election were held today, while Tom Mulcair and the NDP continue their downward slide and would receive 24 per cent of the vote (down two points), according to the poll.

Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois continue to hold at five per cent while the Green Party receives just two per cent support.

Infographic by Janet Cordahi

The breakthrough for the Liberals came from their support in Ontario where they have a commanding lead over their rivals with 43 per cent support. The Conservatives are second with 30 per cent, the NDP third with 23 per cent and the Green’s fourth with four per cent.

“The Liberals have gained ground taking it away from the NDP no question about that, but the motivation has been to defeat Stephen Harper,” Wright said. “You are getting more people recognizing that with Trudeau’s momentum that’s better to join them than to stay with the NDP.”

The Grits have made significant gains in the “905” region surrounding Toronto, where they have 48 per cent support – 12 points more than than the Conservatives with 36 per cent. The NDP trails with 14 per cent support.

Infographic by Janet Cordahi

The latest seat projections from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) also see the Liberals forming government with 128 seats.  The Conservatives would get 122 and the NDP trailing with 84 seats.

The NDP – once the frontrunners in the campaign – have continued to see a drop in their support in key battlegrounds like Quebec over their stance on issues like the niqab and voters moving to the Bloc.

“The NDP had held Quebec with their base going into this election campaign and it has just crumbled,” said Wright. “Right now we have four parties that are basically tied in Quebec.”

Click here to view data »

The battle for Quebec is a four-way race with the Liberals enjoying a small lead with 29 per cent over the Conservatives with 26 per cent, the NDP at 24 per cent and the Bloc at 20 per cent.

Wright said one irony of this election has been the approval ratings for the government have been relatively strong at 43 per cent.

“It doesn’t make sense. You usually have people less likely to approve your government if in fact they are going to vote against you,” he said. “There may be a wild card in here where people are having a tough time deciding whether they are going to cast their vote for Mr. Trudeau or Mr. Harper.”

Click here to view data »

Elsewhere across the country, voter tallies show that many seats are still up for grabs.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories have a slim lead with 39 per cent over the Grits at 36 per cent, NDP with 23 per cent and Green Party at two per cent.

The battle for British Columbia has the Liberals in the lead with 37 per cent over the NDP at 30 per cent. The Tories are at 29 per cent and vying for second position. The Green Party is well behind at three per cent

The Conservatives have a sizeable lead in Alberta with 50 per cent – 20 points more than the Liberals at 30 per cent. The NDP has 19 per cent support and the Green Party has one per cent, according to the poll.

The Liberals continue to be the dominant party in Atlantic Canada with 50 per cent – well ahead of the NDP at 26 per cent, Conservatives at 22 per cent and Green Party  two per cent.

Exclusive Global News Ipsos polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Global News Ipsos Reid.” This poll was conducted between October 9 and October 13, with a sample of 1,349 Canadians from Ipsos’ online panel and is accurate to within +/- 3.0 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

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