The Liberal Party is maintaining a slight lead in national voting intentions, but the federal Conservatives have managed to surpass the NDP in recent days to snag second place, according to a new poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of Global News.
Approximately 33 per cent of Canadians prefer the Liberals, the poll suggests, matching results obtained by Ipsos in a similar survey the week of Sept. 18-21. The movement since has been entirely within the NDP and Conservatives camps, with the parties effectively switching places.
The Conservatives have pulled into second place with 32 per cent support (up five points), while the NDP has slipped to third at 27 per cent (down three points). Once the front-runner, Thomas Mulcair’s party has seen a steady loss in support of roughly two points each week since early September.
Battleground Ontario
Liberal gains in recent weeks had largely been driven by growing support in Ontario, but it is the Conservatives who now seem to have surged ahead in Canada’s most populous province — driving up their national numbers. The new poll, which relied on a sample of 1,354 Canadians and was conducted between Sept. 25 and 28, shows Stephen Harper’s party currently enjoys 35 per cent support in Ontario, with the Liberals polling at 34 per cent (down from 41 per cent in the last Ipsos poll) and the NDP trailing with 27 per cent.
In Toronto proper, the NDP (34 per cent) and Liberals (33 per cent) are statistically tied for first, with the Conservatives (28 per cent) in third place. In the 905 area surrounding Toronto, the Conservatives (43 per cent) are far ahead of the Liberals (36 per cent), NDP (19 per cent), and Green Party (3 per cent).
NDP holding on in Quebec
The NDP is still clinging to a solid lead in Quebec, with 34 per cent support. That’s ten points ahead of the Liberals and 13 points ahead of the Conservatives, who have nevertheless enjoyed a huge increase in support (up 8 points).
Support for the Bloc Québécois in its home province fell by five points, coming in at 18 per cent. Nationally, the Bloc’s share of the vote is steady at 4 per cent, while the Green Party is also polling at 4 per cent.
Is niqab behind Conservative bounce?
The Conservative government’s hard-line stance against the wearing of the niqab or other face-covering during citizenship ceremonies may be helping to drive the increase in support for the party, especially in Quebec.
While fewer Canadians back the government’s position since the face-covering ban was found to be unlawful by both the Federal Court and the Federal Court of Appeal, a full three quarters (76 per cent) still support a requirement that people show their face when becoming swearing the oath to become citizens. In Quebec, however, support jumps even higher, to 84 per cent.
Key metrics show improvement for Tories
Mirroring the overall improvement in the party’s fortunes, the Conservatives are also enjoying a bump in several key tracking metrics. Four in ten voters approve (strongly or somewhat) of the performance of the government under Harper, for instance, up two points over the previous week. On the topic of which party and leader would be best able to deal with the struggling Canadian economy if elected, Harper leads with 35 per cent (up four points), with Liberal leader Justin Trudeau at 34 per cent (unchanged) and Mulcair at 31 per cent (down three points).
Exclusive Global News Ipsos polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Global News Ipsos.” The poll was conducted between Sept. 25 and Sept. 28, and is accurate to within +/- 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population.
Comments