Driest May on record in Saskatoon may turn into warm, dry summer
SASKATOON – May 2015 will go down in the record books as the driest May ever recorded in Saskatoon. Only 0.4 millimetres of rain was recorded at the Saskatoon Diefenbaker International Airport through the month – a far cry from the normal 40.2 millimetres that falls.
All of the rain that did fall fell during a thunderstorm on May 6.
Temperature-wise, daytime highs were slightly warmer than normal on average through the month and overnight lows were around 2 degrees colder than normal.
June is typically the wettest month of the year in Saskatoon, with approximately 66 millimetres of rain falling on average.
The first week of June is shaping up to be dry as well, with the only chance of any additional moisture being late in the week into the beginning of the weekend.
With what seems to be shaping up to be persistently dry, some may be wondering if this is a sign of things to come this summer.
Summer 2015 Outlook
The combination of multiple factors including a strengthening El Nino pattern in the south Pacific and warm water off the coast of B.C. have brought about a general consensus among most long-range seasonal forecast models.
When predicting a summer forecast, because the time frame spans the three months of meteorological summer, being June, July and August, it is important to note that these are the average trends one is likely to see.
Through the summer months, the Saskatoon area is expecting on average warmer than normal temperatures.
This means there still will be colder than normal days, however when averaging out all of the days through the period, temperatures are expected to overall be above seasonal.
Precipitation is trickier to predict in seasonal forecasting, particularly in summer when thunderstorms carry a lot of the rain that falls and can produce a range of rainfall amounts over a small area.
Long-range models are indicating that Saskatoon will likely see a drier than normal summer, a trend that is expected to carry over from what has been a below average spring precipitation-wise as well.
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