June 11, 2014 8:20 pm

Ontario election: New poll shows three-way race

Ontario Premier and Ontario Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne, centre, Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath, left, and Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak take part in the Ontario provincial leaders debate in Toronto, Tuesday June 3, 2014.

THE CANADIAN PRESS/POOL-Mark Blinch

TORONTO – A new Ipsos-Reid poll released less than 24 hours before polls close shows for the first time a three-way race among decided voters in Ontario.

If you only look at people who say they’re likely to vote, the Progressive Conservatives maintain a lead.

But a Lispop.ca aggregation combining several polls conducted between June 4 and 11 – including the new Ipsos-Reid poll – that looks at decided voters, whether or not they’re likely to vote, shows a seven seat Liberal lead and a 1.5 per cent lead in popular vote.

If the Lispop.ca aggregation holds true through election day, Ontario would once again have a Liberal minority government, with 49 seats – ten more than the Progressive Conservatives.


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The Ipsos poll, conducted on behalf of CTV/CP24 and released Wednesday afternoon, suggests Tim Hudak’s Progressive conservatives lead among likely voters with 36 per cent support – not surprising, as conservatives are traditionally more inclined to vote.

But this poll also suggests a three-way race, with both the Liberals and NDP just six points behind the Tories with 30 per cent each among likely voters.

But the jump in NDP support looks much smaller when aggregated with previous polls.

In Depth: Ontario Election 2014

In the vote-rich 905 area surrounding Toronto the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals are statistically tied with 34 per cent and 33 per cent support, respectively, among decided voters. But among likely voters, the PCs have taken a commanding 13 per cent lead over the governing Liberals. A Global News analysis found 905 ridings are among those with the lowest turnout in the province.

When it comes to voters’ desire for change, there’s not much difference between this and other polls: voters still overwhelmingly say its “time for another provincial party to take over.”

The poll was conducted between June 6 to 11, surveying 1,991 Ontarians and interviewed online. It is considered accurate within +/- 2.4 percentage points.

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