During the five weeks since the previous LISPOP provincial seat projection, the change in Ontario popular vote support has not moved dramatically. Indeed there has been only modest movement since the 2011 Ontario election. Since that last projection, the NDP has dropped three percentage points and the Conservatives have gained two percentage points, leaving them with a slight 1.5 point plurality over the Liberals among the approximately 5,000 respondents contacted in polling conducted over the past month.
Seat projection, May 6 »
Seat projection, May 6
In Depth: Ontario Election 2014
This still leaves a substantial number of very tight constituency races, and the safest conclusion from this data is that a minority government result is indicated, rather than that any party has a decisive lead. The Conservatives have expanded their seat totals somewhat in the eastern and southwestern regions of Ontario but continue to be challenged in the large urban centres, especially Toronto and the GTA. The following data are drawn from a blended aggregate sample from a number of polling firms including Ekos, Ipsos, Nanos and Innovative Research that took place between April 7 and May 3. (The figures in parentheses are the 2011 election results.)
Seat projections as of May 03, 2014. Data courtesy: Laurier Institute for the study of Public Opinion and Policy.
Barry Kay is a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University and a part of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy
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