The average price of a one-kilogram slab of prime rib at the grocery store is $25.30 this spring while the same weight in pork chops, which are less expensive, is $11.24.
But both those retail prices are well above what those cuts cost a year ago – the prime rib is up six per cent while the chops have risen by 4.5 per cent, respectively, between March and a year earlier.
In contrast, prices across a range of other grocery items, like bread, crackers and frozen French fries have actually fallen compared to a year ago, according to Statistics Canada.
And consumers can expect that trend—falling or depressed prices for some food items and jumping costs for others, namely meat and produce—to continue into the summer, experts and food industry executives say.
“While grocery continues to deflate, we do see significant inflation in areas of fresh,” Vicente Trius, president at Loblaw Cos. Ltd, said this week.
“Grocery” and “fresh” are industry terms used to separate food items into different categories. Generally, fresh refers to fruits and vegetables and meat. Grocery covers off packaged and frozen foods among other items.
Different forces are fanning higher prices in fresh this year – perhaps sharply – while others are keeping a lid on costs in the broader grocery category, experts say.
Prices up
To start, the drop in the loonie is pushing up costs in Canada for food in general, but most urgently on produce, Trius and other grocery store operators say.
As for meat, a virus has plagued pig farmers in the United States and to a lesser extent Canada for months, limiting the amount of pork being produced. The shortage has “cascaded” into other meat categories like beef and chicken, industry experts say.
READ MORE: Pork prices set to surge as virus wreaks havoc on farmers
The outbreak and resulting shortage has “had a cascading effect into other protein, like chicken, because of the higher demand,” Trius said on a conference call on Wednesday.
Prices for seafood have even felt related pressure. “There’s been some inflation as well in salmon and shrimp,” the supermarket executive said.
And prices down
At the same time, competition among grocers has rarely if ever been more intense.
With larger U.S. discount giants like Wal-Mart and Target hoping to woo more Canadian grocery shoppers, prices in categories they focus on, like frozen foods and non-perishable items, are facing downward pressure.
READ MORE: Walmart Canada makes bigger push into grocery aisle
A 675-gram loaf of bread cost on average $2.81 in March, down seven cents from a year earlier. Crackers are cheaper by a penny, while macroni is less expensive now than it was four years ago.
Canadian grocers have to balance the need to make a profit against the need to keep customers from heading to Walmart for food. So, they say they are “investing” in keeping customers coming back by lowering prices in some food categories.
“As a company, we have continued to invest in our customer proposition,” Loblaws’ Trius said.
Gas pressure
But it’s shaping up to be a pricey barbecue season.
Gasoline prices have spiked about 10 per cent since February, adding another inflationary factor to food prices – which will likely manifest itself in higher prices for steaks and burgers, experts say.
Charlbois said distribution contracts are negotiated between grocery stores and suppliers once every two or three months and he expects to see price increases turning up in the meat department soon.
“There’s a lagging effect, it takes time before these factors have an impact on prices,” he said.
Here’s a look at how some food prices have performed since 2010:
WATCH: Canadian grocery bills poised to climb
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