Tories slink past Liberals among those likely to vote: poll

OTTAWA – The Liberals may be leading in the polls – but not necessarily among those who actually vote.

A new poll from Angus Reid Global shows a tighter-than-expected race between the Conservatives and Liberals among those most likely to vote. If an election were held tomorrow, the Tories would inch ahead to 32 per cent support, compared to the Grits at 31 per cent.

Although the Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points at 33 per cent to 26 per cent support among eligible voters, the Tories come out on top among older voters and in most regions, the poll says.

The NDP place third, at 26 per cent, among both eligible and likely voters.

It is the first time in 40 years that the company has polled likely voters, not just eligible ones, due to declining voter turnout.

“It’s quite significant,” said Shachi Kurl, vice president of Angus Reid Global.

“To an extent it really does challenge the traditional model or challenge the traditional assumptions we might have when we’re talking only to eligible voters, to say, ok well there’s actually a little bit more to the story here.”

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s job performance ratings are weak, the poll says, with more than half of Canadians disapproving on the job he’s doing.

But more than 60 per cent of Canadians believe the country is either on the right track or are uncertain.

“The Conservatives have a base who are very certain who they’re going to support,” said Kurl.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s popularity is much higher – with half of eligible voters approving of his job performance. NDP leader Thomas Mulcair has 45 per cent approval, the poll says.

In fact, most eligible voters think Trudeau would make the best prime minister.

The Conservatives still hold a powerful grip on older voters, the poll says, the demographic most likely to vote. Support rises to 34 per cent among voters aged 55 and older.

While the Liberals are gaining in British Columbia and Alberta, the Tories still lead in all regions except Quebec and Atlantic Canada, it says. The NDP poll highest in Quebec at 36 per cent, while the Liberals take Atlantic Canada at 58 per cent.

Most notably, Conservatives still lead among likely voters in Ontario, at 37 per cent compared with 33 per cent for the Liberals. In the Greater Toronto Area, Tories lead the Grits 39 per cent to 35 per cent.

NDP polls highest among voters under 35, and declines to 22 per cent support with voters aged 55 and older, it says.

“I think the Liberals, if they really want to go for blood, will try to try to eat the NDP’s lunch,” said Kurl.

In fact, 28 per cent of eligible voters who say they’ll support the NDP also said their opinion of Trudeau is going up, and almost a quarter of those who are leaning NDP think Trudeau would make the best prime minister, she said.

The margin of error for the poll is + or – 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.