BUSINESS REPORT: The ganging up of the Canadian dollar

Reuters/Mark Blinch

Analysts are ganging up on the Canadian dollar and if you believe them, and have some U.S. dollars to buy, it may be better to do it sooner rather than later.

The dollar would normally follow in lockstep with the price of crude as it has for the last three years, even as the price of oil has rallied.

The dollar has fallen back below 80 cents U.S. and is holding there.

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The Royal Bank, Capital Economics, CIBC and noted analyst David Rosenberg all see the dollar falling to 75 cents next year, with Rosenberg seeing a possible 74 cent dollar.

CIBC’s Benjamin Tal, a reliable forecaster, sees the difficulty of NAFTA negotiations the major catalyst for the lower loonie, but Tuesday’s speech by Stephen Poloz citing the lack of inflation as the factor keeping the lid on interest rates, is also keeping the lid on the dollar.


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