Canadians are overwhelmingly rooting for presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and, at the same time, fearing Republican nominee Donald Trump.
The reason is simple: A Donald Trump administration — one looking to scrap some established trade deals — will spell trouble for Canada, says Canada-U.S. relations analyst and Johns Hopkins University professor Chris Sands.
WATCH: During presidential debate, Trump calls NAFTA ‘the worst trade deal maybe ever signed, anywhere’
The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner. And though Clinton recently came out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Sands says her position on trade is more constructive than Trump’s.
READ MORE: Canadians rooting for Hillary Clinton to become president, poll shows
“She has recognized there are a lot of people in the country who have a backlash against trade because they feel it’s not working for them,” he said. “So she wants to make sure these agreements have a bit more protection for the people. She recognizes that the trade consensus is fraying. So what she’s looking to do is, at the margins, make these agreements work a bit better.”
Sands pointed to the Obama administration’s work on the Beyond the Border regulations as an example of what changes “on the margins” might look like under a Clinton presidency – as opposed to a complete scrapping of the decades-old trade deal between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.
READ MORE: A look at Canadian Donald Trump supporters
“I think one of the biggest impacts of a Trump presidency on Canadians is through the economy,” Sands said.
For 15 years, analysts have been trying to convince Americans to balance budgets and control spending, he said.
“And there was something of a consensus on that. But Donald Trump has said we don’t need to reform social security, just put more money into it. And we don’t have to reform medicare, just put more money into it.”
READ MORE: 80% of Canadians fear a Donald Trump presidency – poll
Cost projections associated with Trump’s policy proposals, coupled with the Republican nominee’s pledge to cut taxes, suggest his plans are going to “blow up the budget and make Washington more dysfunctional than ever,” Sands says.
“So from a Canadian point of view, those signals on the economy are going to be quite worrisome if he were to be the president,” he said.
READ MORE: Which president would be better for Canada’s economy – Trump or Clinton?
Despite the uniqueness of this year’s Republican nominee for president, analysis from CIBC World Markets released in the spring suggested the fate of Canada’s economy is inherently tied to the U.S. — and that Democratic administrations have historically proven to be more beneficial to Canada.
With that in mind, the report’s authors wrote that Democratic presidents have presided over faster growing economies and, perhaps more importantly, since 1962, Democratic presidents have also been associated with better Canadian growth statistics.