If nominated, Donald Trump is almost guaranteed to win the presidency, according to a political science professor in Stony Brook, New York.
Helmut Norpoth said he created a statistical model that works for every election since 1912, except one (the 1960 election).
He said the model shows that if Trump wins the Republican nomination, there’s a 97-99 per cent chance he’d become president.
“The bottom line is that … [it’s] almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth told Stony Brook University’s student paper, The Statesman, “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”
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The model uses patterns in the electoral cycle and a candidate’s performance in the primaries to determine who has the popular vote in the presidential election. But it doesn’t predict who will win the primaries.
Norpoth says the odds are slightly worse for the real estate mogul if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination: he’d beat her with 54.7 per cent of the popular vote, with 97 per cent accuracy.
If Bernie Sanders gets the nomination Norporth says his model predicts Trump would win with 99 per cent accuracy.
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The Democrats have more luck when pitted against other republicans: Clinton had a 55 per cent chance of winning over Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.
Trump has so far won three of four contests, while Cruz won the Iowa caucus and Rubio has come in second in two contests.
Clinton has won two contests, but Sanders won the New Hampshire primary. The South Carolina primary is currently underway.
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