The Blue Jays’ home-run of a postseason won’t likely put points on the board for the overall economy, experts say. But it could tilt the election.
Unlike the Olympics (or Pan Am Games) that draw in foreign spenders, the money being shelled out this fall is largely a zero-sum game played by local participants, CIBC economists suggest. The Jays’ highly entertaining playoff run has captivated Canadians across the country, but that doesn’t mean it will lead to an overall bump in economic growth.
“Torontonians and Canadians elsewhere could be increasing their overall entertainment expenses during the playoff run,” CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld suggested in a research note, even enough to register gains for the sector’s contribution to national GDP.
20% boost
Indeed, according to Moneris, the country’s largest processor of credit- and debit-card purchases, bars and restaurants in downtown Toronto saw a 20 per cent boost for Game 1 of the American League Division Series compared to a normal Thursday.
But Shenfeld says that jump in discretionary spending would have been cash spent on something else, or at a later date (sorry kids, Santa’s budget was blown on the postseason).
“Dipping into savings in October will serve to reduce discretionary spending in the subsequent few months,” he said.
Spending shift
Sports bars are flush on game nights, but that comes at the expense of empty restaurants and bars that don’t house TVs. Those staying home to watch the game aren’t going to movies or other events that would require a bit of spending, the economist said.
And as for those workday afternoon tilts throughout the Texas series, there’s an actual cost to the economy as idle employees send productivity off a cliff.
Some studies have suggested cities and regions who advance to the World Series realize a $10- to $20-million economic boost, the CIBC economist noted. But subsequent research has been “less encouraging” – the research finding “no statistically significant impacts.”
Election impact?
One important area where the ALCS series could have an impact? The federal election.
‘That Bautista home run could end up having economic consequences after all.’
WATCH: Global Toronto’s Angie Seth takes to the streets to ask Torontonians if they know what big event is happening Monday night in Canada.
Who might benefit? The Conservatives, according to the economist.
“Polls suggest that the Liberals and NDP would have more to lose from a drop in younger-voter turnout than the incumbent Conservatives,” Shenfeld said. “Amidst a closely fought election, that Bautista home run could end up having economic consequences after all.”
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