7 things to watch for in the last 7 days of the election

Voters head to the polls on Monday, Oct. 19 – just one week away.

It’s been one of the longest campaigns in modern Canadian history, and as it heads into its final stretch, there are some things to watch for, for some indication of how things might shake down on election day.

Here are some things that will definitely happen in the next week, and some predictions by political-watchers.

1. Which ridings the leaders are visiting

Where the federal leaders decide to deliver their speeches matters more than ever in the last few days of a campaign, thinks former Liberal strategist Greg MacEachern, currently a vice-president of government relations at Environics Communications.

“You’re going to get some sense of where they need to be and where they think they have the most opportunity.”

This could mean that leaders go where they think they could make gains, or where they think they might prevent losses. On Thanksgiving Monday, for example, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau visited several ridings not currently held by his party in Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa area – possibly indicating that he thinks the Liberals could take them. “So the message there is, ‘let’s work on the momentum, let’s get the vote out,’” said MacEachern.

The NDP has a tougher decision to make, he thinks: whether they think they can still win it all, or just concentrate on remaining the official Opposition.

Former Conservative strategist Tim Powers agrees that Mulcair will probably spend time in Quebec and everyone will visit B.C. However, he believes Ontario will get the heaviest concentration of visits from all three major leaders, and the Conservatives and NDP in particular will be spending some time making sure key incumbents get re-elected.

2. Pre-election day turnout numbers

There have been reports of long lineups all weekend at advance polling stations across Canada. On the first two days alone, Elections Canada estimated that about 1,642,000 people showed up to cast their ballots early – representing a 34 per cent increase over the equivalent time period in 2011.

Elections Canada will be releasing official advance turnout numbers on Wednesday, the agency said, so we’ll get to see if those numbers continued over rest of the long weekend. When comparing this year’s turnout to previous elections’ it’s worth remembering though that advance polls are open longer this election, so there will almost certainly be more advance voters.

Elections Canada also ran a pilot project last week, which set up one-stop-shops on post-secondary campuses and other locations in an effort to encourage more students to vote. The agency will be releasing turnout numbers for that pilot project on Tuesday.

3. More (yes, more) attack ads

The NDP released an ad over the weekend, attacking both the Liberals and the Conservatives about the Trans-Pacific Partnership. And the Conservatives have been continually putting out new ads, mostly focused on attacking Trudeau. In turn, the Liberals have attacked Harper, calling him “out of touch”.

Expect this to continue, said MacEachern. He expects an increase in the intensity of attack ads as the campaign enters its final stretch. “I think that people are really tensing for the kind of advertising that we’re about to see,” he said.

He hopes that parties and candidates remember that there is life after the election though, and not get too carried away with their attacks. “Make sure that whatever you’re saying in an ad or on campaign is something that you can look your friends in the eye afterward and say, ‘Yeah, I was okay with me saying that.’”

And if you’re sick of seeing constant political ads, remember, it’s just for one more week.

4. Trudeau under fire

As the front runner, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is going to be the target of both the Conservatives and the NDP – with attack ads and other means– thinks Powers.

He expects that the Conservatives will try and push the message that Trudeau will cost individual taxpayers money, and the NDP will try to differentiate themselves as much as possible.

As for the Liberals, they might play things cautiously, he thinks.

“I think they’ll try and avoid mistakes,” said Powers. “I think the greatest vulnerability perhaps for Mr. Trudeau at the moment with the Liberal momentum of the past week is the intensity of it can lead to mistakes being made.”

He expects that Trudeau will continue to push the message of ambitious change in government, but be careful not to say something that could cost him his small lead.

5. More chosen candidates for strategic voting initiatives

All election, the Vote Together campaign has been conducting local polls and gathering information on individual ridings. Their goal is to identify ridings where Conservatives are vulnerable, and based on their information, which candidate stands the best chance of taking that seat from the Conservative party. Then, voters in that riding who have pledged to vote strategically will vote for whichever candidate has been selected.

So far, the Vote Together campaign has chosen 16 candidates (nine Liberals and seven NDP). They anticipate announcing more ridings and chosen candidates on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, as well as more local polling results.

6. A nasty revelation about a federal leader

MacEachern anticipates that in the last week of the campaign, a party might reach for a “nuclear option” strategy: a nasty, hard-to-ignore story released by one campaign or another, targeting a federal leader.

He points to the 2011 election, where a few days before the end of the campaign, then-NDP Leader Jack Layton had to defend himself against accusations that he was found naked in a Toronto massage parlour – a story which had first come out years before.

In that case, said MacEachern, it didn’t seem to damage the NDP much. “I think voters are sophisticated enough to sense desperation,” he said. “If it seems a little over the top and it’s in the dying days of the election, I think people tend to look at any of those stories with a grain of salt.”

7. A huge get-out-the-vote campaign on election day

Voters can expect “a huge campaign of harassment” on election day, as all parties try their hardest to make sure their supporters show up at the polls, said Powers.

“You’re calling, you’re emailing, you’re reminding them through friends and neighbours. People who are looking for transport, you’re always making sure they have it. They’ll have people who will be assigned to rally people there. All manner of engagement that can be used to motivate people to go – that’s legal of course – will be used.”

The Conservatives have an advantage in this area, as their supporters tend to be more committed to actually voting, he said. They also “have a bigger ground game. They have a bigger structural advantage when it comes to election day-type activities.”

Other parties, whose supporters tend to be younger or less likely to vote, have to try their hardest to get people out, he said. “The Liberals, they’re going to want to make sure all those people who say they support Mr. Trudeau do vote.”

Voters should also be on the alert for robocalls, he said. “Watch for a lot of that too, on the legal side, one would hope.”