With wins over the New York Islanders and Nashville Predators confidence was high for game three of the home stand, but the Washington Capitals are a much better team than those two.
Montreal lost, but they showed they can compete with anyone. The Capitals scored three in the third to come back for a 4-2 win. First place Washington has won nine straight on the road.
Wilde Horses
The supposed best composition of an NHL line is one forechecker, one passer, one scorer. Each line has to also have a play driver. A line should have, at least, some size. However, when looking at Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Alex Newhook they don’t follow the formula all that well.
The line doesn’t have a known forechecker. It doesn’t really have any size either. Suzuki passes and shoots well. Caufield is a scorer. We’re all still trying to figure out what Newhook actually is.
They’re breaking the line composition rules, yet it’s the best threesome that Head Coach Martin St. Louis has put together this season. Suzuki and Caufield were tried with many and their shot share was 35 per cent. They were broken up, yet Suzuki managed no better than 50 per cent with anyone.
Suddenly, these three have it all figured out so far. First two games of the home stand, the line had an 80 share in Goals Expected. Overall, they have the best numbers on the team with a 60 share.
In the first period, they keyed the Canadiens hot start with two goals. Newhook got the Canadiens on the board with his sixth, then Caufield followed with his 17th.
Lane Hutson drew an assist on the first goal to count for his sixth straight game. That ties a Canadiens rookie record for defenders equalling Chris Chelios. That’s special company. Hutson is a special player.
Hutson isn’t likely to win the rookie over Matvei Michkov or Macklin Celebrini, but it is possible if he can keep this going. Right now, Michkov and Celebrini are the favourites.
Hutson is as exciting as anyone. He was dangling behind the net mesmerizing the Capitals. He made a three-zone saucer pass. He looks more and more comfortable defensively. He logs the highest or second highest ice time on the team each game. This is all spectacular. It’s stunning from a 62nd overall pick in a rookie season.
The quality of shot the Canadiens attained looking to claim the win was outstanding. Montreal had three breakaways, but couldn’t count against Logan Thompson. Jayden Struble, Josh Anderson, and Nick Suzuki all had breakaways from the blue line in, but couldn’t count. Brendan Gallagher also was alone from 10 feet.
It was a loss, but the gains for the team are obvious.
Wilde Goats
It was an exciting game with the Canadiens playing some of their best hockey. In the second period, they had four straight shifts with tremendous pressure as they rolled the lines successfully. However, one small bone to pick besides the obvious that they don’t have the experience to know how to turn leads into wins.
Juraj Slafkovsky has to get more accurate with his shot. In the last two games, he had six outstanding looks. Five of the looks were inside 20 feet and the other was 30 feet, yet Slafkovsky has barely made the goalie work at all.
On five of the attempts, Slafkovsky missed the net completely. On one attempt, he hit Logan Thompson under the arm near the crest. Slafkovsky simply does not have enough control on the direction of his shot, or he is trying to be too precise.
The obvious upside here is Slavkovsky had six quality looks in two games. That’s an enormous amount. It is an indicator that Slafkovsky is very hard to manage creating a ton of ice for himself.
Usually, the quality of what he has been able to create for himself would mean one or two goals for a player. If you are looking for why Slafkovsky has only two goals this season, you need look no farther than he is spraying his shots.
Wilde Cards
The biggest weakness on the Montreal Canadiens right now is the same biggest weakness as last season. In 2023-24, the Canadiens were the 31st ranked team out of 32 in goals scored by the second line. Only the San Jose Sharks were worse than Montreal overall.
This season, the Sharks have come alive on the second line. They are suddenly in the top-third of the league thanks to some good work by management and the arrival of Macklin Celebrini and Tyler Toffoli to power the first line.
On the first line, it is remarkable that Nick Suzuki has the toughest match-ups in the league, but somehow he is a plus player this year in plus-minus. The first line is not the Canadiens issue whatsoever. They score goals. They compete against the league’s best.
However, Montreal is absolutely dreadful in goal scoring on line two as the Canadiens are ranked 32nd of 32 teams. As they entered the game against the Capitals Saturday, Montreal had five goals on two from Patrik Laine, two from Juraj Slafkovsky, and one from Kirby Dach.
It could be considered unfair to say Laine’s total shouldn’t count, but he actually is the leading goal scorer on the line. If we slot in Alex Newhook on the second line, the total moves to eight. Sadly, eight is still the lowest scoring second line in the league. Anaheim and Nashville sit at nine goals.
For comparison, at the top of the league is Tampa Bay with 29 goals from their second line. They are followed by Toronto with 28 goals, Vegas and Dallas with 27 goals, New Jersey with 26 and Florida with 25.
This is a stunning gap of goals already this season. Pro-rated, this would be a gap of 80 goals. Last season, the gap from the Canadiens to the best total in the league was 60 goals. Winning hockey is absolutely impossible with 25 goals from the second line. They are far worse than last year.
Kirby Dach is a league worst minus 21 on the season. He has one goal. A line’s play driver is usually the centre who is given the responsibility of getting the puck up the ice after defending the high slot well to take possession. Dach needs to drop to the third line for success this season.
Laine and Slafkovsky need a puck mover. They are not play drivers. If Montreal wants success this season, it would seem a second-line centre is in order to make it all come together.
Another school of thought is to just let this season die on the vine and acquire that top-centre through the draft. However, management didn’t acquire Laine to settle for that philosophy. They hoped Dach would come back from major knee reconstruction to drive a line, but they did not get that miracle.
The prediction here is the Canadiens will monitor events in December, and if they move from four points back to even closer to a playoff spot and are .500 on the season, they will pull the trigger on a trade in January that does not hurt their long-term future.
They need a top-six centre. Acquiring one doesn’t send Dach to the minors, nor does it give up on him. It simply gives him more time with less pressure and easier match-ups to find his form. At the same time, everyone benefits from a much better player in that centre slot with Laine and Slafkovsky.
If the Canadiens remain near the bottom of the standings in the new year, then expect another trading deadline fire sale of unrestricted free agents to acquire a high draft pick. Their play in the next month will decide it.