The Montreal Canadiens have ridden outstanding goaltending to a fast start this season. Certainly it is early returns, but Samuel Montembeault has been the best goalie in the league in the first week.
However, that ended with a poor night for Montembeault and the Canadiens defence as the Pittsburgh Penguins won 6-3.
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The rebuild has many aspects going for it, but one difficulty for the Canadiens is no one has become the best of the best. It is stars that win cups, and while Montreal has a massive volume of new players with potential, no one has put in big numbers or shown a skill set to suggest that they are in that star category.
The top-line has been strong for long stretches, but no one has hit a point-per-game pace, and the club is still looking for a 40-goal scorer this century. Perhaps the answer is Ivan Demidov who was drafted fifth overall in 2024, and who has a tremendous skill-set.
On defence, the same issue persists as Montreal looks for someone to elevate his game, and become a first-pair defender. Montreal is looking for a defender who can shut down the best players in the game. They want a player that when the game is on the line, he can hold the lead.
Enter Kaiden Guhle who Canadiens Head Coach Martin St. Louis said of Saturday night: “You don’t win in this league consistently without defencemen like Kaiden Guhle. He plays against all the top guys.”
Guhle has been knocking on the door, and he may be finally breaking through this season. Guhle has upped his game clearly. It’s remarkable timing considering he had an appendectomy only three weeks ago, and had a short camp with only a game in the pre-season.
Guhle looks like a first pair defender. He is shutting down the top players. The Canadiens have spent far too much time around their own goalie, but when Guhle is on, the opposition has yet to score this season.
It was Guhle who got the Canadiens on the scoreboard in the first period with a lightning shot. Guhle now has a plus/minus rating of plus 6. He leads the team by a large margin. He also leads the team in advanced stats like Corsi and expected goals.
Apart from the number one goalie, Guhle has been the most consistent player on the club so far, and only Lane Hutson is close to him on defence. Once again, St. Louis rotated his pairings in the second period to get the two together more. It looks like Hutson and Guhle could become a regular pair.
The Canadiens were awful in the first, but in the second, they turned it around for their best period of the season. Nick Suzuki had a two point night. On the power play, Suzuki laid out a pass to Juraj Slafkovsky that he only had to tap in to a wide open net.
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Emil Heineman then gave the Canadiens their first lead of the night with a rocket of a shot. General Manager Kent Hughes demanded that Heineman was the forward returned in the trade with Calgary and the shot that he possesses is why.
To be an NHL regular, a player must have one strong skill, at least. When that one skill is a howitzer of a shot, there’s a lot of patience for the other parts of a game to mature. With that shot, Heineman will score goals. He seems solid enough defensively to not be costly. Heineman may have a good future.
He has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, and if you are going to beat the oddsmakers dire predictions for Montreal, you need surprises.
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The Canadiens didn’t get their first shot until six minutes and 30 seconds remained in the first period. They seemed stuck in quick sand in their own zone. They couldn’t win pucks, and they were second on pucks. They had no sustained pressure.
The lynchpin for change this season for the Canadiens is the second line. It was horrific last year. The second worst goal total in the league for a second line ahead of only San Jose. The return of Kirby Dach has not made a difference yet this season.
Dach is not the same player after his reconstructive knee surgery. He is showing caution which is natural because he likely feels some fear still about the strength in that knee. He also doesn’t skate as well. Again, the organization has to hope this is temporary.
Patience is required for Dach. It was a major injury. Both the mind and the body need to feel right again. Without Dach as a catalyst at centre with his play-driving abilities, Alex Newhook and Joel Armia are doing little.
If the second line gets dominated like it did last year, this season won’t be much different. It’s a simple as that. A team can’t make the playoffs with 35 goals from its second line when 70 is the goal.
Stay tuned. Stay patient. There’s a lot of season left, but this is not the same Dach, and this is a discouraging start.
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The Canadiens results have far outshone their analytics this season. The won-loss record is good, but the underlying numbers are actually not good at all. The only analytic that is in Montreal’s favour is the goaltending of Montembeault.
To start the season, Montembeault in his first two games, managed a Goals Saved Above Expected of 6.6. That’s a great number for an entire season. Second is Cam Talbot at 3.9 . To be 2.5 goals clear of second is shocking and unsustainable.
However, that’s the end of the good news. Montreal needs to play better than they have so far, especially defensively. The top line last year was able to put in strong numbers flirting with a 60 share of expected goals. However, this year, Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky are having issues. They have only a 40 share.
None of the lines are doing well. Kirby Dach has been a play driver, but he has not impacted Joel Armia or Alex Newhook in any positive manner. That line has only a 31 share of expected goals. These numbers are extremely concerning. It may not seem it now, but it can’t continue long term.
On defence, the same issues, all of the partnerships are hovering at around 40 or worse, except for Kaiden Guhle and Lane Hutson who have a 71 share for seventh in the entire league.
Goaltending can’t be relied on over and over again. Eventually, the Canadiens have to play more hockey in the other club’s end, and get a better share of the game’s chances.
The best that can be said about it all is that it is a short sample size. Thankfully, short samples can be skewed.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you Call of the Wilde on globalnews.ca after each Canadiens game.
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