October 23, 2013 5:32 pm
Updated: October 24, 2013 9:43 am

Liberal momentum makes majority a possibility: poll

Federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau speaks at a campaign rally for byelection candidate Chrystia Freeland at her Toronto Centre campaign office on Wednesday October 2, 2013.


A new poll is suggesting that support for the federal NDP and Conservative party is eroding, with many former supporters switching to the Liberals – enough that if these results held, it could mean a Liberal government, maybe even a majority.

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The poll, conducted by Forum Research, says that one third of people who voted NDP in the past federal election would vote Liberal if an election were held today. In fact, 45 per cent of NDP voters in total would switch their votes to another party.

Twenty-five per cent of Conservative voters would switch their vote – 17 per cent of them would change it to Liberal.

“These results will propel the Liberals towards a majority or at least a very strong minority,” said Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “And these results will erase 10 years of NDP progress and put them into a distant third-party status.”

But the Liberal party isn’t hanging on to all of its supporters either: 22 per cent of people who voted Liberal in 2011 would change their vote, most of them to the NDP. However, Bozinoff says that Forum Research’s polls have been showing a Liberal government for months.

Thirty-eight per cent of former Bloc Quebecois voters would vote for another party if an election were held today. Most of those would vote Liberal (17 per cent of switchers) and some would vote NDP.

According to the poll, NDP switchers seem to be turned off by their party leader, Tom Mulcair. Twenty-seven per cent of those who would not vote NDP again say that it’s because “a new party leader was elected, who you don’t support.” Ten per cent say that they disagree with the party’s policies.

Among those who previously voted Conservative, scandals were the biggest reason people said they would switch. Thirty-one per cent of people said they would vote for another party for that reason. Twenty-five per cent said that they disagreed with party policies.

“We’re seeing the backwash of the orange wave that swept the country, and voters are returning to their original parties. The Conservatives, however, appear to be shooting themselves in their own feet with the Senate scandal,” said Bozinoff.

People who previously voted Liberal indicated that scandals affected their decision to change their vote. Those who were switching from the Bloc said that they disagreed with the party’s policies.

The poll was conducted through an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1859 Canadians 18 years of age and older on Oct. 21 and 22, 2013.

Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 2 per cent, 19 times out of 20. Data was weighted to reflect the population based on Census data.

© 2013 Shaw Media

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