Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry on Monday presented data showing that an increase in Delta variant cases of COVID-19 and a sudden increase in social contacts could lead to an overall rise in COVID-19 in the province.
In the latest epidemiological modelling data presentation, Henry said the numbers show cases could jump back over 150 per day by the end of August if social contacts get to 80 per cent of normal and the Delta variant makes up 50 per cent of cases.
The Delta variant currently makes up 12 per cent of variant cases, but has been doubling each week for the past few weeks. Variants now make up more than 90 per cent of all of B.C.’s cases.
“What we have is a much lower margin of error for the variants that spread more quickly. Yes, some of the data from the U.K. shows it is more transmissible. But the jury is out on that a little bit,” Henry said.
“Where we are seeing the transmission happen is in pockets of unvaccinated people, and we saw that in the UK with mostly younger people, which means we are not seeing the same impact on hospitalizations.”
But even with these concerns, officials said the province has seen a significant drop in total cases, opening the door for a move to Step 3 in the government’s reopening plan on July 1.
The formal announcement will take place at 1:45 p.m. Tuesday afternoon and include Health Minister Adrian Dix, Premier John Horgan and economic recovery minister Ravi Kahlon.
The main reason has been the real-world effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines.
The reproductive rate is now .59, meaning in a little more than half the COVID cases it is passed on to someone else.
“What this shows us is that immunization is preventing seven out of 10 infections across the province, so we have, overall, a 70 per cent vaccine effectiveness,” Henry said.
“This is really good news. It tells us that these vaccines are working in all age groups and we have the information from the 70-and-over over a longer period of time that that protection is lasting and is durable.”
Henry also reported the latest case numbers over the last 72 hours: 57 cases from Friday to Saturday, 50 cases from Saturday to Sunday, and 39 from Sunday to Monday.
It brings the seven-day moving average for new cases in B.C. down to 62 — the lowest since Aug. 13. Active cases also slipped below 1,000 for the first time since last August.
The province has far exceeded one of its criteria for moving to Step 3: having at least 70 per cent of the 18+ population vaccinated with at least one dose. As of Friday, that number was 77.6 per cent.
In Step 3, all sectors will drop COVID-19 safety plans and must follow communicable disease prevention guidance from WorkSafeBC.
Masks are expected to no longer be mandatory, but recommended in all public indoor settings.
“We are moving from a period where orders were required because we had a lot of transmission in our community and every single layer of protection was incredibly important,” Henry said.
“Now, as we have protection through immunization and decreasing transmission rates, it is really important for us to give that agency back to people. And you wear a mask based on your own risk and based on being immunized and protected, where you protect others through being immunized as well.
Step 3 will also mark a return to normal for indoor and outdoor personal gatherings, as well sleepovers for kids.
For organized gatherings, the capacity will increase both indoor and outdoor when following communicable disease prevention guidance.
Fairs and festivals can operate when following communicable disease prevention guidance, and Canada-wide recreational travel will be encouraged.
If the province moves to Step 3 on Thursday as expected, there will be no group limit for indoor and outdoor dining, and the liquor service restrictions will be lifted.
Casinos and nightclubs will be allowed to operate with a limited capacity and must follow communicable disease prevention guidance.
“If we look at the modelling that shows the potential that could happen as we continue to increase our social contacts, as we return to those things that we need so much, whether it’s work or the social interactions that we’ve been missing for so long, we will expect to see, in some cases, again, some clusters and some transmission in certain situations,” Henry said.
“But it’s not likely that we’re going to see that rapid increase in spread in the community the way we did even in March, that’s because we know we have a solid base of protection through immunization and we have a strong public health program to follow up in each of the cases and clusters as they occur.”
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