The West Block — Episode 15, Season 10

THE WEST BLOCK

Episode 15, Season 10

Sunday, January 3, 2021

Host: Mercedes Stephenson

Guests:

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, Infectious Disease Specialist

Annamie Paul, Green Party Leader

Journalist Panel:

Mike Le Couteur, Abigail Bimman and David Akin

Location: Ottawa, Ontario

Mercedes Stephenson: It’s January 3^rd, 2021. I’m Mercedes Stephenson and this is The West Block.

Well, welcome to 2021. Thankfully, 2020 is finally over and we can start looking ahead to what’s in store for the year. So welcome to our very first show of the new year.

Most of you at home will likely recognize our very first guest on the show. Not only has he been battling on the frontlines against COVID-19, he has been on our TV screens almost every day of the pandemic, and he has been bringing us the latest details and information on the virus and Canada’s response. Dr. Isaac Bogoch joins me now.

Thank you so much for taking time for us, doctor. I know not only are you bringing us public health messages on the screen and explaining the virus, you’re also actually treating patients in hospital. How are you?

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, Infectious Disease Specialist: I’m doing okay. I think much like many of the other people on the frontlines who are health care workers across various guilds; I think we’re all pretty tired. It’s been a long haul but you know, I can’t speak on behalf of everyone, but like everyone else, we’re just rolling up our sleeves and trying to get the job done. And certainly, you know, there’s a lot of hope with the vaccine programs rolling out, but clearly there’s still a lot of work ahead. So it’s been tough but here we are. We’re still doing it.

Mercedes Stephenson: You treat COVID-19 patients in hospital. What is that experience like?

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, Infectious Disease Specialist: It’s been challenging. I mean, it’s—to be quite honest, there are lots of different aspects to it. Clearly it’s very challenging to watch the sickest of the sick come to hospital and, you know, while there are some wonderful stories of people surviving and recovering and going home, we all know the tremendous toll this has taken in Canada with over 13,000 deaths and unfortunately, a lot of those deaths do occur in hospital so that part has been challenging. I think some of the other challenges are around the virus itself and we know that many family members aren’t allowed into hospital settings to be with their family members, which also poses additional challenges, and we do everything we can to allow visits at some point in time, but that can’t be all the time and certainly, we’re doing our best with regards to that. So that’s posed a significant challenge.

On the other hand, I’ve got to say, just from a purely medical and scientific standpoint, it’s been fascinating. It’s absolutely been fascinating. It’s not every day that you get to see face to face an infection that the world has never seen before and what comes with that is new signs and symptoms, for example, smell and taste disturbances and, you know, different manifestations of this infection. So clearly, this is an awful infection and it’s taken a tremendous toll. It is also interesting on one end of the spectrum as well to just—to be managing this infection and seeing how it manifests and watching this unfold firsthand at a clinical level. So that part is pretty interesting as well. But clearly, this is just an awful infection. We all just want this to go away.

Mercedes Stephenson: I want to do a bit of rapid fire on the vaccine with you because everybody is hoping that will be the silver bullet, as you mentioned. Once you get the vaccine, do you still have to wear a mask?

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, Infectious Disease Specialist: Absolutely, you do. And I think we’re not going to see a lifting of these public health restrictions until enough Canadians are vaccinated. We very likely will see a gradual lifting of these public health restrictions, it’s just going to take a little bit of time. We know that people who have had the vaccine can still get infected, and perhaps they might even be able to transmit even if they are infected. It’s just we know that the vaccine significantly reduces your chances of getting infected with the virus.

Mercedes Stephenson: So it gives you a better chance. Not a cure-all, though. People still need to be careful. So far, the second wave of COVID-19 has been worse than the first. Do you foresee a third wave in 2021, despite the vaccine just with the time period to get people vaccinated?

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, Infectious Disease Specialist: It certainly is possible and we have to do everything we can to avoid that. And, I think a lot of this will depend on two things. 1) How fast we can get the vaccine to the greatest number of Canadians, and 2) How well we adhere to our public health restrictions. And adhering to these public health measures really involves two folds. On one side, there certainly is individual responsibility and people can make good choices for themselves, but of course, on the other hand, this is not entirely about individual responsibility. We certainly need governments and public health units to create policy to keep us safe. So, I think we can avoid a third wave if we have cooperation between the governments, through public health units with creating smart policy, plus people making the right choices for the components that are under their decisions, coupled with a rapid vaccine rollout plan.

Mercedes Stephenson: Who should and who shouldn’t get the vaccine?

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, Infectious Disease Specialist: Quite frankly, everybody should get the vaccine when it’s their turn. Everybody should get the vaccine when it’s their turn and we’re just sort of figuring out whose turn it’s going to be first. We know what the highest tier and the highest priority groups are and it’s going to take a little bit of time to get through that group. But afterwards, certainly there will be a next priority group identified and those individuals should get it. There are probably very few reasons for people to not get the vaccine. I think that’s a better way of putting it. And even those who weren’t included in the clinical trial, so for example, children or women who are pregnant or perhaps breastfeeding. I think that in the coming weeks, we’ll probably have greater clarity that individuals who might not have been included in the vaccine trials will also very likely be able to get the vaccine. Now probably with close consultation with a health care provider, but I still think that it will likely be available to pregnant women, women who are breastfeeding, people who have compromised immune systems and other groups as well.

Mercedes Stephenson: When do you think life will go back to normal? When can we go to concerts and hug our grandparents again? Will it be 2021?

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, Infectious Disease Specialist: Yeah, you know what? I really do believe it will be 2021. Canada’s done a very good job in getting access to many different types of vaccines and I think over the course of—well certainly over the latter part of 2020 and I think it might continue over to early part of 2021, we’re going to see some continued progress on the scientific front from these vaccines and also Canada gaining access to these vaccines. And the more access to vaccinations we have and the fewer barriers we have to vaccinating the Canadian public, I think that just means we’ll get back to what we remember in 2019, faster and faster. And I really think that maybe by the middle part of the year, when there’s just a significant number of Canadians that have had access to vaccination, we’ll likely start to lift some of these public health measures. And as we roll on to the latter part of the year, we’ll probably start to see things like larger gatherings allowed in indoor settings, larger gatherings allowed in outdoor settings, perhaps mask mandates being lifted, perhaps softening of the border between Canada and the United States, and I think we’re going to slowly start to see that trend towards normalcy as the year progresses. It’s not going to be like a light switch where they just turn it on and say okay, we’re back to normal. I don’t think that’s going to happen at all, but we’ll probably see a slow movement towards that starting when a significant portion of Canadians are vaccinated.

Mercedes Stephenson: I think that hope on the horizon is welcome news to many of our viewers, certainly to me, and I know our team here. Thank you so much for coming on Dr. Bogoch and please take care of yourself.

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, Infectious Disease Specialist: My pleasure. Have a great day.

Mercedes Stephenson: Up next, new year, new leader, new priorities: an interview with Green Party Leader Annamie Paul.

Mercedes Stephenson: Welcome back. Green Party Leader Annamie Paul joins me now. She certainly smashed a lot of ceilings in 2020 when Ms. Paul took over the reins from Elizabeth May and became the first black Jewish woman to lead a federal party in Canada.

Thank you so much for coming on the show and Happy New Year.

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul: Happy New Year to you. Thanks for having me.

Mercedes Stephenson: You have broken so many ceilings with your win and brought hope to a lot of people that politics are changing and that it will start to look more representative of how our country and how our communities look. Do you think that 2021 is going to be a year of significant political change and progress?

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul: One hundred percent. This is a year, 2020, that has changed so much. It has transformed our society. It has really caused us to wake up every day saying what is a life worth? What are we prepared to do to protect our communities? And I think that that is changing every part of our society, including politics and in some good ways, I hope.

Mercedes Stephenson: As the Green Party leader, what are your real priorities for 2021, for how you want to transform your party and make it competitive? Because a lot of folks have said the Green Party has so much potential, it’s never really been able to realize that, though, when it comes to number of seats and this could be a year when we see a federal election.

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul: The transformation that we just talked about, it’s certainly going to touch politics. I absolutely believe that it is going to change the way that people vote. We really know that people in Canada have said they do not want to go back to the way things were, that we want to have a society that protects people better than we have in the past that completes our society safety net and is really ambitious on the climate. And so I think when people look at the Green Party and see the policies that we proposed and that we’re positive, that we’re creative, that we’re innovative, that we’re willing to work with the other political parties. I think that that’s really a great argument for why they should consider voting Green in the next election.

Mercedes Stephenson: Beyond the environment, which everybody knows the Green Party really has been strong on, what are the key policies that you’d like to see your party advance?

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul: We are really focused on completing the social safety net. We saw how quickly millions of Canadians were pushed right to the brink when the pandemic hit We’ve seen how many people have suffered unnecessarily through this pandemic, and we don’t want to ever see that again. And so we are going to be talking in the days and months to come. In fact, right now we’re talking about the CERB repayments and making sure that people aren’t unfairly penalized for having received the CERB. We really want to see long term care brought under the Canada Health Act. We want to see a guaranteed liveable income. We want to see universal pharmacare. It’s all really about completing the social safety net and making sure that people in Canada can live in dignity from the first day of their lives to their very last moment.

Mercedes Stephenson: Are the Greens concerned at all about the deficit and the debt? There’s been historic government spending and the programs you’re suggesting would cost even more. Is that something that you’re worried about? Or do you just simply think that this is necessary?

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul: One thing that we have to remember, really hold onto here in Canada, is that we understand that when we invest in ourselves, when we invest in people in our country, those investments pay for themselves. So whether it is Medicare, or universal pharmacare, or a guaranteed liveable income, or a universal post-secondary education, these are all investments that if we make them now, if we use those—make those investments during the recovery period, we absolutely are going to put ourselves on a much more secure financial footing. Our best chance of paying back any debt that we’ve racked up during this period is to make sure that we make those wise investments. So, our social safety net and a green recovery are the very best things that we can to make sure that we can ensure our economic future in Canada.

Mercedes Stephenson: You don’t have a seat right now as a party leader. How important is it for you to get into Parliament? Are you looking at running in a by-election if one becomes available in 2021, or will you wait for the next general election?

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul: Well, I’d love to know when that next general election is going to be. You know, it might be this spring. It might be a little bit later, and part of the answer to your question will really depend on that. I’ve been able to do, I think, a lot outside of Parliament and we know that there have been other really successful leaders who have started outside of Parliament and done a lot of important work. But certainly, if we have a general election soon, I will be running and running to win. And we came pretty close in Toronto Centre and next time—next time’s the, you know—it’s going to take. Next time is the time where we’re going to win and I’ll take a seat in Parliament on behalf of the party.

Mercedes Stephenson: And you ran in Toronto Centre. That was a pretty brave decision, given the Liberals have held it since 1993. Why did you decide to run in that riding which has been such a Liberal stronghold?

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul: Well first to say, we are brave. We are a daring party. You know, we want people in Canada to continue to be daring. We are a country of leaders, a country of firsts in innovation and so the Green Party always tries to reflect that. And, you know, I ran in Toronto Centre because this is a riding I care deeply about. It was a riding that I was born in and that my family worked in as frontline services workers. And so when I see the community struggling with food security, affordability, with very high rates of infection with COVID, I couldn’t stand by. And I will never, ever put my own political security above the needs of people in Canada. And so I ran there, we did really, really well in that Liberal stronghold. I believe that a Green can win that in the next election and I have absolutely no regrets about that decision.

Mercedes Stephenson: Ms. Paul, thank you for joining us. We have you on because we think you are going to be one of the big newsmakers of 2021. We appreciate your time with us today.

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul: Thank you so much. And I’m just so pleased to be here and we’re going to hope for the very best in 2021.

Mercedes Stephenson: Up next, reporters on the Hill join me for our annual panel discussion: Looking ahead to the new year and what you can expect in politics.

Mercedes Stephenson: Welcome back. Every year, we sit down with our Ottawa journalists to discuss the year that was and what’s to come. This time last year, we had a very different sort of conversation and we thought 2019 was about the busiest year we could ever remember here as journalists. If only we had known what the new cycle had in store for us. We’ve been going non-stop from the last time we all sat together in these chairs to once again this year. Here’s a look back at that conversation last year.

It’s been quite a busy year, SNC-Lavalin.

Mike Le Couteur, Global News: It’s just one of those stories that you sit there and go really? Did that all just happen?

Abigail Bimman, Global News: Really the brownface and blackface stories breaking would be the standout moment in the campaign.

Mike Le Couteur, Global News: This must be spam. This can’t be happening.

David Akin, Global News: I was on the bus when it broke out.

Mike Le Couteur, Global News: Yeah.

David Akin, Global News: The Liberal bus when it broke and we did the same thing. We were going no. This is The Onion or something like that.

Mike Le Couteur, Global News: Yeah.

David Akin, Global News: It was just a bizarre moment.

Mercedes Stephenson: We haven’t stopped working since a year ago when we were last in these seats although I will point out for everyone at home we are 6-feet apart, those of us who are in here at the desk. We have Mike and Abigail on at home, David joining us from the David Akin studio special, where he has spent most of the pandemic. And wow. What an incredible year. I mean, we started out with a plane crash where a plane with Canadian citizens onboard was shot down. Then we went into rail blockades in some Indigenous communities. After that, COVID-19, the crash of the Stalker, the Nova Scotia shooting, the crash of the Snowbirds, lost a finance minister, largest government programs in Canadian history being rolled out, a historic deficit that puts us back with the Second World War and we’re still in this pandemic. No election yet, no budget. Those are on the horizon.

Mike, when you look at the year ahead in 2021, and we’re all thankful that 2020 is over, but what do you see as being the dominant story this year?

Mike Le Couteur, Global News: I mean it’s really going to be how this government emerges from the pandemic and restarts the economy. When do they decide this is the time? This is when we’re going to push the button and say okay, we’re going to start this economy firing again and making sure that Canada can re-emerge from this stronger, as the prime minister is saying, or will it sputter out of the gate? That, I think, will be something that Canadians will want to see because think about it, when will we finally say this pandemic is over or close enough to be over that we can restart? Everybody’s going to want to travel, to get out, to hug each other again. People will be dying to make sure that we get going again. So when they decide okay, this is when we can do it, I think will be the key decision for this government.

Mercedes Stephenson: It’s a huge political risk they’re taking, which could either pay off tremendously if the economy restarts and bounces back, or could be a significant problem for them as they move forward. And nobody really knows yet because we haven’t seen it come out of the second wave and the full economic effects of that. But Abigail, I know one of the things that you have been looking at not only in this pandemic but throughout your career has been long term care. That was such a story of 2020 and we expect it will be again in 2021.

Abigail Bimman, Global News: Well, you know, that’s right. Mike talks about how the government is going to emerge from this pandemic. I’m also interested in what lessons we’ll take with us from the pandemic, and long term care is something that I’m very focused on because, you know, the experts and the families around and involved in the system have been saying for years that these exact problems of chronic understaffing, not enough beds, multiple beds in one room, people have been sounding the alarm about those issues for years and experts are saying that not enough was even done between the first and the second wave. So, will there be big changes made to fix some of these issues going forward? That’s what I’ll be watching for in 2021.

Mercedes Stephenson: And I think a lot of families will be watching for that, too, and of course, all of us who one day will end up either needing that kind of health care when we’re elderly or potentially being in long term care homes. So a personal interest in this for all Canadians as well.

David Akin, I know there is something you wanted to mention that didn’t happen in 2020 that normally happens that you think will be a very big story in 2021. What is that?

David Akin, Global News: Yeah, there are a couple of things so of course, we didn’t have a budget last year. In fact, this Trudeau government’s gone longer than any government in our history in between budgets. But it looks like we’re going to have one in the spring and that’s going to be very important. So that’s a for certain thing we’re going to have and then very likely we’ll see a general election sometime in 2021. I think the likelihood of a general election increases as the year goes on, although it could very well be dependent on the economy.

And looking back on 2020, don’t forget we had three provincial elections and that’s a significant story. And we saw a majority government now in place in B.C., a majority government now in place in New Brunswick, continued majority in Saskatchewan. Those elections were important for themselves, but Elections Canada was keeping an eye on how they conducted those elections safely during a pandemic. Some lessons have been learned and here are some lessons for the federal politicians. Three incumbents, each of which were perceived by their electorate to be doing very well handling the pandemic and they were rewarded with a majority government. I think federally that’s a lesson for not just Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives but Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. Be careful, if the public thinks the federal government is generally going the right way on the pandemic, they may reward the incumbent with a majority.

Mercedes Stephenson: Well and it seems like so far, the federal opposition have been pretty shy to call an election. They’ve been highly critical, but at the end of the day, they have backed most of the really big programs that were about direct support to Canadians. The NDP has been able to influence policy, although some say they’ve taken a risk because they’ve stepped down from taking the government to the brink that, you know, will people just associate changes? They’ve made to things like pharmacare and sick days with being the Liberals.

Mike, how does the opposition calculate whether or not it’s go time to pull the trigger and go ahead to an election in 2021?

Mike Le Couteur, Global News: I think it’s really where we are in the pandemic and in the vaccination program because they have to realize that whoever decides now is the time, they will be painted as that party during the election. So, if the electorate says man, I really don’t want to go to the polls right now. This is more trouble that it seems, then whoever has forced them to go to the polls will pay the price. I think one of the interesting things about a possible election will be how does Trudeau campaign? How does anybody campaign? It could be more digital, but Prime Minister Trudeau is very different from campaigning Trudeau, who rolls up the sleeves, gets out there, can whip up a crowd. If there are no crowds that he can whip up, then will he be a less effective campaigner and thus pay the price with seats in the House of Commons. That’s something that I think will be really interesting.

Mercedes Stephenson: Potential significant risk for the government, also potential opportunity. Abigail, where do you see this being that the biggest opportunity for them to I don’t want to say score points, but to make gains politically with to be fair, a government that’s been pretty popular throughout this pandemic.

Abigail Bimman, Global News: That’s right, and I think in terms of opportunity, the vaccine rollout is a big question for me. We’ve seen a lot of criticism of the government for not providing answers fast enough or not even being clear about which answers they don’t have. So, can the government get enough Canadians vaccinated to develop mass immunity? Can they get enough Canadians who have questions, you know, onside and can they physically actually get vaccines to those who need it? I think that’s going to be a big question in 2021. You know, all the experts are fast to say this is—the vaccine is not a silver bullet, but it’s the pretty much only thing in this pandemic that’s given a lot of Canadians hope. So will it rollout in an effective manner? I’d say that’s something to watch.

Mercedes Stephenson: Yeah, everyone just wants to get back to their lives.

David, you know, risks the Liberals often seem to run, and we’ve seen it year and year again, some of the judgement calls they make on ethics files and in this case as well, they’ve put a very large deficit out there. Do you think that that’s going to continue to be a big issue? The spending without being answer where the money’s coming from and some of the choices that seem to be getting made on these personal ethics files like the WE scandal and losing a finance minister.

David Akin, Global News: Almost certainly, but whether or not that seems to hurt the Trudeau Liberals politically, you know it’s an open question. I mean, again, a year ago, SNC-Lavalin. SNC-Lavalin, we thought it would kill Trudeau and the Liberals. Didn’t, they won a government. I think as we go through the year, think about this. Minority governments fall when one of two things happens. The government thinks it can win a majority and I don’t see that right now. To win back the majority, the Trudeau Liberals would have to win a lot of Bloc seats in Quebec. And none of the polls, all in the last year, showed that the Liberals were doing that much better in Quebec. The other way an election happens is the three opposition parties think they can advance their own seat count: Official Opposition becoming government, the other parties increasing the number of seats. Do we really think the NDP is in a position to start picking up seats? I’m not so sure. The BQ is probably at a high water mark. I don’t think they’re necessarily hungry, maybe the Conservatives. But the point is all three opposition parties have to come to the conclusion of the same time they can eat some government lunch. That’s going to be tricky to see that calculus, I think in the spring, maybe more so in the fall.

Mercedes Stephenson: Well that wraps up our analysis of the year that was and the year ahead. Thank you for joining us and all your hard work this year. We’ll be back here again next year. I’m almost afraid to guess what we’ll be talking about.