A majority of Canadians say they want change in Ottawa, with 37 per cent saying they’d vote Conservative if a federal election were held tomorrow compared to 31 per cent who would vote for the Liberals, according to an Ipsos poll.
The poll also showed Conservative leader Andrew Scheer picking up the approval of 36 per cent of respondents, compared to Justin Trudeau‘s 32 per cent.
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Scheer was the preferred choice of women (35 per cent) and respondents aged 55 years and over (45 per cent), as well as people whose education had reached a high school level (41 per cent) or who had obtained a diploma (35 per cent).
Trudeau, meanwhile, was the preferred choice of millennials (33 per cent), as well as those with a post-graduate education (36 per cent), but that was just within the margin.
READ MORE: Only 32% of Canadians think Trudeau deserves re-election as Tories hold lead — Ipsos poll
Ipsos’ last poll showed 32 per cent saying that the Trudeau government had done a good job and deserved re-election, marking the lowest numbers he had seen since he was elected in 2015.
The latest poll showed that support up by one point, while 67 per cent said it was time for another federal party to govern.
WATCH: April 26 — Latest Ipsos federal election poll shows shift in support
Trudeau did not hold majority approval in any category of gender, age or education when respondents were asked whether the prime minister warranted re-election.
Polling also showed the Conservatives and Liberals “locked in a holding pattern” when it came to the popular vote.
The Conservatives polled at 37 per cent among decided voters, while the Liberals held the support of 31 per cent, when people were asked which party they’d support if a federal election were held tomorrow.
Meanwhile, the NDP took 18 per cent of the vote nationally, the Greens took seven per cent, the Bloc Quebecois five per cent and Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada one per cent.
However, 18 per cent of respondents said they didn’t know who they would vote for.
Ipsos noted that the Liberals are trailing in every region except Quebec.
The latest numbers are “good news for the Tories; bad news for the Liberals,” Sean Simpson, vice-president at Ipsos, told Global News.
“With SNC-Lavalin mostly in the rear view mirror, the Liberals were clearly hoping that they would rebound — but that has not been the case,” he said.
“Particularly concerning for the prime minister is that more Canadians believe that someone still relatively unknown — Andrew Scheer — would make the better prime minister.”
READ MORE: With SNC-Lavalin in the past, gap between Liberals and Conservatives tightens — Ipsos poll
Ipsos noted that the Liberals are trailing in every region except Quebec.
There, the Liberals are polling at 37 per cent, representing a lead of 13 per cent over the Conservatives, who are polling at 24 per cent.
The Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario with 38 per cent to 32 per cent, while the NDP hold 22 per cent, the highest margin they have in any region.
Simpson said there may have been a “knee-jerk reaction” to Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s policies.
Given that it’s summer, however, he said, “some of the heat is off the Conservative brand in Ontario.”
“Clearly, the Tories are still in the driver’s seat across the country, with the notable exception of Quebec,” Simpson said.
“But if things continue to go poorly for Doug Ford, then he could act as an anchor for the Tory brand in Ontario.”
WATCH: April 26 — With SNC-Lavalin in the rear view, support for Liberals and Conservatives tighten: Ipsos poll
The Liberals’ lead appears to have evaporated in B.C., where they had 42 per cent to the Conservatives’ 23 per cent in April.
In this poll, the Conservatives polled at 33 per cent, representing growth of 10 percentage points on the West Coast.
The Liberals, however, slid to an approval rating of 28 per cent, representing a drop of 14 percentage points in three months.
This slide happened amid numerous political developments in B.C., which included the federal government greenlighting the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion once again.
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The feds also passed Bill C-48, which formalizes a moratorium on oil tanker of a particular size on the province’s North Coast, from the northern tip of Vancouver Island to Alaska.
The federal government likewise passed Bill C-69, legislation that overhauls how major industrial projects like pipelines are reviewed.
This slide in the polls came after the SNC-Lavalin issue — which set B.C. MP and ex-attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould against the prime minister — had largely been seen as being in the past.
Unlike previous Ipsos surveys, this one prompted the Greens in its online polling.
While the pollster found that the party’s support has been “significantly” overstated when it has done this, Simpson also said that prompting them “clearly impacts their measured support.”
“And their votes are primarily coming from the Liberals and the NDP, not the Tories,” he said.
“A strong Green Party will likely put Andrew Scheer into 24 Sussex.”
At the same time, the Conservatives appeared to slide in Alberta, going from an approval rating of 63 per cent in April to 55 per cent in July, while the Liberals’ fortunes there improved slightly, going from 23 per cent to 24 per cent.
The NDP also improved in Alberta, going from 11 to 15 per cent in the same timeframe.
Simpson said not to read too much into this — the Conservatives are still very strong there.
METHODOLOGY
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 12 to 15, 2019, on behalf Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 adults living in Canada was polled. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
- With files from Amanda Connolly
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