And the Winnipeg Winter Prediction says…
First let me say this. Long range forecasts at any time of year are extremely iffy. My buddy Chris St. Clair with the Weather Network told me as much a few years back although in the past few years, they say progress has been made in narrowing certain things down over a longer period of time.
Meteorologists check yearly weather patterns then put that together with any global phenomena that may be happening like say an “El Nino” or perhaps an “El Nina”, what the jetstream is doing and quite possibly a dartboard to give us what they feel will happen over the next three to four months.
I tend to buy these long term forecasts only if the news is good because, come on now, nobody wants to face the fact the next few months that might be a trip to the seventh circle of Hades.
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With that in mind I’ve taken pretty much every long term forecast I could find to see if they jive.
Let’s start with the good old, “Old Farmers Almanac.” Please remember these predictions are for regions, not specific cities or even smaller areas. In the case of the “Old Farmers Almanac” and pretty much every other forecast, we get lumped in with northwestern Ontario and the eastern half of Saskatchewan. Ok, here we go:
“Winter temperatures will be milder than normal, with the coldest periods from late November into early December, in mid-December, from late December into early January, and in early February. Precipitation and snowfall will be below normal, with the snowiest periods in mid- to late November.”
Well, it sounds like we can handle that one, right? Let’s move on to the Accuweather prediction:
“Cold winter for cities such as Regina, Winnipeg and Thunder Bay. Waves of arctic air through the winter should keep a deep snowpack well into spring. Stronger winds will be more common over the eastern Prairies this winter, which may lead to dangerous windchills and whiteout conditions when combined with the Arctic cold waves.”
Don’t think I like the sound of that one at all.
Environment Canada does it a bit differently. They forecast in probabilities. They suggest our region has a 20 per cent chance of below normal temps from now until the end of the year a 30 per cent chance of at normal temps and a 50 per cent chance of above normal temps. They also say we have a 40 per cent of higher than normal precipitation.
As for the Weather Network? Well they haven’t come out with anything officially long term just yet but they’re suggesting our highs and lows for the next two weeks will be below normal. Not a lot…but below normal. No real big hits of snow are forecast either. Yet.
Global News meteorologist Anthony Farnell released his outlook on Friday and it doesn’t look great for the Prairies:
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“Get ready for an early onslaught of winter this year. Arctic air is already building across northern Canada and will be sliding south with increased frequency through November. At the same time, frequent storms will tap into this cold and deliver significant early season snow. Once the snowpack is in place, watch out because it could become cold fast leading up to Christmas this year.”
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Take from those predictions what you will but obviously it’s anybody’s guess as to what will actually happen.
You know what? Your Grandma’s knee pain or lack thereof is probably just as good an indicator of weather yet to come.
We only know one thing for sure. It’s coming.
Gulp.
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