THE WEST BLOCK
Episode 40, Season 5
Sunday, June 26, 2016
Host: Tom Clark
Guests: Howard Drake, Jeremy Kinsman, Gary Doer, Luiza Savage
‘Plane Talk’: MPs Singing Badly in Planes
Location: Ottawa
Tom Clark: On this Sunday, by a bare majority, Britain turns its back on the European Union. What now? We get perspectives from across the pond and here at home.
And then, how will North America react to Brexit? It’ll be a late addition to the Three Amigos summit in Ottawa next week. Our panel explains what’s at stake.
Then, what does Donald Trump have in common with the Brexit movement? Well, a lot more than you might think.
It is Sunday, June the 26th. And from the nation’s capital, I’m Tom Clark. And you are in The West Block.
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Tom Clark: It was the vote heard around the world. By the tiniest of margins, Britain’s voted to leave the European Union. The morning after was pretty harsh. The pound took a pounding and the calls for referenda in other countries started almost immediately.
Here’s just some of the reaction:
Nigel Farage: “The sun has risen on an independent United Kingdom.”
David Cameron: “I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.”
Boris Johnson: “It was a noble idea for its time. It is no longer right for this country.”
Tom Clark: Well joining now is the British High Commissioner to Canada, Howard Drake. Thanks very much for being here. I know that your job as ambassador is to walk around and calm everybody down after the Brexit vote, but look you know, you’ve lost your prime minister. You voted to leave the European Union. You may very well lose the leader of the Opposition. How on earth do you calm people down?
Howard Drake: The prime minister made clear at the beginning, Tom, that this was a democratic process. Clearly the outcome wasn’t the one that the government was looking for but the British people have had their say. I can’t comment on the Labour Party Opposition, but the prime minister has said what’s going to happen now. This was always a possibility. He very much hoped for a different outcome and argued very strongly for it. I think in terms of calming the markets, I would point to two things. I think the very clear statement made by the Governor of the Bank of England, the well-known Mark Carney here, was very reassuring this morning as he pointed out the stability of the markets is a top priority and the liquidity of the Bank of England and the stress tests that have been done mean that yes there’s going to be short term instability but it’ll be managed. So that’s really important. And then the next thing, of course, which the prime minister has laid out, is the process we go through now having had this referendum. And so the cabinet will be meeting next week to work out our approach to the negotiation. The prime minister has made clear that he doesn’t think he should be the person to lead that, and so he’s set out a timetable for an orderly transition to someone else, a new leader and they will make the decision.
Tom Clark: Forgive me for interrupting, but speaking of timetables, it looks as if there’s another agenda going on here as well. As you know, at the end of last week, Sinn Fein in Ireland now wants a referendum to unite Ireland, take it out of the United Kingdom. Scottish nationalists are saying time for another referendum on whether Scotland should leave the United Kingdom. Can the United Kingdom survive this?
Howard Drake: The most important thing as we take this forward as the prime minister said this morning is that all the key stakeholders which includes the devolved administrations who have a direct stake in the U.K.’s membership of the European Union, are fully consulted on the way forward, among others. The Bank of England is going to be a key part of that, so that’s what’s going to happen. I can’t comment on what may or may not happen in Scotland and Ireland but we’re all committed members of the United Kingdom. We want to now concentrate on fulfilling the democratic wish of the people of the U.K. who voted last night, and to put in place a negotiation with the European Union that best protects our interests.
Tom Clark: I suspect that this next question is not high on the priority list of anybody in London at the moment, but obviously from a Canadian perspective, we’re waiting for the European free trade deal. It has to be ratified. But now with this, what happens to CETA? The free trade deal, do we have to start all over again with the U.K.? What happens?
Howard Drake: The first thing to say is that the U.K. didn’t cease to be a member of the European Union last night. We will be a member of the European Union working for the good of Europe for as long as the process takes whereby at the end of which we will actually formerly leave.
Tom Clark: Except Angela Merkel wants you out now.
Howard Drake: The comments that were made by others, is not for me to say. But what the prime minister and indeed foreign secretary have said this morning is that we may be on the way out of the European Union but we are still a part of Europe. We’re a very close part of Europe. We believe therefore that the security and prosperity of the countries of Europe, those in the European Union and outside, is very much in our interests. So we will be doing what we can to help ensure that.
Tom Clark: Help me through the process here a little bit, although it’s all new even for people in the U.K. But they’ve seen how the markets have reacted. They’ve seen how the world has reacted. Is there any coming back from this do you suppose? I mean can it be reversed?
Howard Drake: No. The prime minister has said we’re going to have this process. We’re going to have the referendum. The people will be consulted. The people have spoken. The European Union for their part have said there will be no renegotiation and I think that’s going to happen. So this is now going to be taken forward. As for the precise time frame for that, I can’t say what that is. There is the treaty which lays down a time-frame for that but we’re not at the point. We haven’t notified the European Union yet that the exit we want to start the discussion. So no, this is going to happen.
Tom Clark: Okay, Howard Drake, the British High Commissioner to Canada. Thank you for coming in on what I’m sure is very interesting days for you.
Howard Drake: Thank you very much Tom. Good to see you.
Tom Clark: Okay.
Howard Drake: Thank you.
Tom Clark: Joining me now from our studios in Victoria is Jeremy Kinsman, a man who has been both Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom and our ambassador to the European Union. Mr. Kinsman thanks very much for being here. What do you think Brexit means for Canada?
Jeremy Kinsman: Well for Canada, it means a lot less than it does for either the British or the Europeans, Tom. There’s no doubt about that. But we are to some extent, we’re engaged, we’re staked in Britain, $25 billion two-way trade. We’ve always counted on Britain both as a friend and as a sort of Liberal voice within the European Union. And its exit worries Canadians, Canadian policy makers, because we don’t any longer have that channel, that particular channel in which generally we vested quite a lot of confidence.
Tom Clark: That’s interesting, so I want to talk about the politics of what we’ve seen a little bit. You know it all so well from both sides of the English Channel. A lot was made about the tone and the nature of the campaign in the United Kingdom. And I’m wondering if in some respects you would look at this as being sort of a revenge against the elites or at least that the elites didn’t do their job in terms of either convincing or cajoling the people to go along with them. Is that a fair read?
Jeremy Kinsman: That’s a fair read, Tom. I mean this wasn’t just about Britain. Don’t forget by the way, it wasn’t Britain trying to get out of the European Union. It was England and there is a difference there. But yeah, absolutely it’s part of a, kind of a global sense of disarray, of frustration, of you said rejection of elite opinion. I was fascinated to read the 68 per cent of Brexit voters chose not to listen to the views of the possible consequences of an exit if they came from so-called experts or authorities or officials. They preferred the views of so-called ordinary people. That’s something you don’t hear just in Britain. You hear it in the United States. And of course, any decisions that aren’t fact-based are risky. And this one was, from their point of view, fundamentally an identity decision. It was an emotional decision. The other side, the ‘remain’ side, thought that facts would win the day. I mean Cameron asked at the end of one debate, can we knowingly vote for a recession? It didn’t get through.
Tom Clark: You know, my recent travels have taken me to Central Europe a lot and what I heard over there, Jeremy, time and time again was this real fear of Brexit that this was going to destabilize Europe. It was going to play into the hands of Russia, Vladimir Putin. What do we make of the instability in Europe now? Can it come through this in whole or is the dream of a united Europe under threat right now?
Jeremy Kinsman: Well, the notion of Europe whole and free which we all celebrated in 1989, 1990, and 1991. I mean it’s still around. I wouldn’t personally place that much emphasis on Vladimir Putin. He’d like to think that we’re talking about him all the time. But he isn’t that pertinent to this. The Central and Eastern Europeans are frankly disappointed with the way their democratic free market experience has gone. They’re disappointed with their politicians. They’re pushing back against Brussels which they thought imposed a sort of humiliating qualification process on them. And so the bigger danger is within the EU itself. And some of those regimes, some of those countries, I think of Hungary, I think of Poland, now have very right wing populous, identity based anti-Brussels governments. And so that’s the kind of stress line that I would point to and it leads to the notion that Western Europe and Easter Europe coming together, it hasn’t grafted that well.
Tom Clark: Jeremy Kinsman joining us from Victoria. A lot to talk about in the weeks ahead Jeremy and I look forward to talking to you about it. Thanks so much for being here.
Jeremy Kinsman: Yeah, pay attention to one thing, Tom. Pay attention to this meeting June 29th with the presidents of the United States and Mexico because one of the impacts of this on Canada is that it makes North America, our neighbourhood, a lot more important.
Tom Clark: And you’ve led me right into the promotion for our next segment, Jeremy, how Brexit will change the conversation at the Three Amigos summit in Ottawa next week. Again, thank you very much. I appreciate your time.
Jeremy Kinsman: Not at all. Thank you.
Tom Clark: Welcome back. Well on Wednesday, U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto will be in Ottawa for the North American Leaders summit. Climate change, Visa requirements, border concerns, all on the agenda. But I think there’s something else going to be on that list. Joining me now for a discussion of what’s at stake: Gary Doer, Canada’s former ambassador to the United States and from Washington, Luiza Savage, editorial director of Politico Events in Washington. Welcome to you both.
So let’s talk about Brexit, cuz everybody else is. In a North American context, and Gary, let me start with you on this. How serious a challenge is this for North America and how does it change the discussion next week?
Gary Doer: Discussions next week about the advantages of our relationship on trade and I think we’ve got to learn to speak more populous language about our trade relationship in this neighbourhood in North America. Canada is United States’ largest customer. We buy more goods than the whole European Union put together. We should talk about that over and over and over again. Mexico is United States’ second largest customer. And so we should continue to mention that because you can never be silent about the advantages of our neighbourhood of North America and about the trading relationship we have. On the European Brexit decision for Canada, it is we’ve got a European trade agreement now. Mexico has an agreement with the European Union. United States does not. It’s just starting that process. But for us, it means we have to I think implement the European trade agreement with Canada and look at some of the features of the same features with the U.K. and sign a bilateral agreement to protect those markets because that’s our fifth-largest customer in terms of Canada.
Tom Clark: And Luiza, I would guess too that from Washington’s perspective they’ve got to move to protect themselves as well. Is there any potential here for conflict as both Canada and the United States protect themselves against a destabilized Europe? Is there any change that we might come in conflict in terms of what our priorities are?
Luiza Savage: Well I think there’s always a chance of conflict when you have two separate bilateral relationships. That’s why countries enter into these regional agreements such as the EU, to keep the playing field even so you could see one side trying to gain an advantage over the other. And I’m sure that trade negotiators on both sides will be keeping a close eye on that. But Tom, politically, I mean this is just playing into a campaign season here that’s all about anti-trade sentiment coming up against the establishment both in the Republican and Democratic parties. And this will certainly throw some more fuel onto that fire. And on the other hand, also demonstrate I think to the public the consequences of taking some of these positions to the extreme.
Tom Clark: But you’ve led me right into the next thing I want to talk about and that is the nature of the politics that we saw on the Brexit debate. The fact that in some respects, I would characterize it as sort of the revenge of the common man against all the best advice being given by the experts and the elites, they decided to go the other way. And I’m just wondering, Luiza, you started down that road of translating what that means. The fact that now there’s an example out there of how anger actually succeeded, in this case, in the Brexit thing. Does that change the dynamics for Donald Trump in the presidential campaign?
Luiza Savage: I think it does. I think it sharpens both dynamics. You have Donald Trump seizing on this now as evidence of the kind of movement that he is supporting here in this country. But at the same time, the common man is seeing their 401K and retirement savings suddenly losing value as the stock markets plunge as a consequence of this. So to me, it’s also underscoring that there are consequences to these moves. This isn’t just politics and rhetoric and slogans.
Tom Clark: Yeah, and Gary that was the weird thing to me because there were direct economic consequences for the Brexit vote. People seemed to, at least in the first stage, say ‘meh who cares? I don’t care.’ Is there enough time for the consequences of Brexit to make any sort of difference in America, or how are you reading that politics?
Gary Doer: Well number one, in the case of both Brexit and say Trump’s nomination, all the pundits and most of the elites got it all wrong on what would eventually happen. So to make predictions, one has to be very careful. Secondly, and I think Trump will run a campaign against Hillary Clinton. Hillary will run on steady hands on the wheel, safer hands on the wheel and he’ll run on throw the bums out of Washington, which is there was some of the similar messages that you heard about Brussels and the U.K. I would say that we’ve got to, in my view, be as populous, those of us who believe in reciprocity and rule of law of trade and therefore trade agreements, have got to be as populous as those opponents. And I think one of the errors of this situation in Europe is nobody talks about the benefits and only people talk with passion about what they pretend to be the weaknesses of trade. That’s why next week in Ottawa; we’re huge customers of each other. We should talk in a populous way about the customer relationship we have, not some of these abstract numbers that just go blah, blah, blah, to use that old Seinfeld term with the public. We’ve got to stop start talking in more populous terms about the advantages of trade in our neighbourhood.
Tom Clark: Okay, so if the politics of fear didn’t work in Britain for the ‘remain’ side, Luiza, when you take a look at what’s going to happen next week in Ottawa, as Gary said, do they have to sell more and talk more about the positives of the relationship other than saying the consequences of not doing something because that didn’t seem to go over so well. And if you could for me, just put that in context of what you see as Washington’s ask at this conference? What do you think?
Luiza Savage: Sure, so there are two pieces of that. Number one, there’s a growing realization by the business community here and by free trade Republicans basically by people who’ve been engaged in free trade that they’ve done an absolute failed job of selling it to the American public, whether you’re in the midwest, whether you’re in the south. People who work at companies that depend on trade are voting for Trump and they think their jobs are endangered because of trade. And you’re going to see an uprising here of companies in this country that rely on trade pushing the government and pushing themselves to do better in telling that story. As per the U.S. perspective, the Obama administration is looking to burnish its legacy. Their big item is climate change. They’re looking forward to standing with Prime Minister Trudeau and showing that they’re taking further steps on climate that they’re aligned here on this topic and they’re looking for a good news story. And they’re looking to underscore their friendship with Mexico and this is part of President Obama’s push-back against Donald Trump. He’s now firmly committed to helping re-elect Hillary Clinton. As you know, Donald Trump wants to build a wall. He said terrible things about Mexicans and I think this will be an opportunity for President Obama to underscore the positives of that relationship as well.
Tom Clark: Last unfair question to Gary because I can only give you 15 seconds. Gary what’s the big ask from Washington’s point of view?
Gary Doer: Well I think the big ask for all of us should be to take the bucket of climate change and the bucket of energy security in North America and put it together in one vision. And come together with the three countries with that broad vision that does energy renewables, energy efficiency, the development of a safe way of gas and utilization of oil in this area and not be so reliant down the road on petrol dictators to export into North America. So I think that’s a populous idea.
Tom Clark: Gary Doer, joining us from Winnipeg, Luiza Savage, joining us from Washington. Thanks both very much. Terrific discussion, I appreciate it.
Luiza Savage: Thank you.
Gary Doer: Thank you.
Tom Clark: Coming up next, MPs singing in planes.
Celina Caesar-Chavannes: Purple rain, purple rain. Woo!
Donald Trump: “I love to see people take their country back. And that’s really what’s happening in the United States and I think you see that. And that’s what’s happening in many other places in the world. They’re tired of it. They want to take their countries back.”
Tom Clark: Well that was Donald Trump in Scotland last Friday and you know for once he has a valid point. There is something going on that’s beginning to rattle the walls of power. Call it the “Revenge of the Common Man”. Voters in the U.K. were told not to vote for the ‘leave’ side that it would hurt the economy. And a majority said “so what.” What they didn’t want was more experts and elites telling them what to do and what to think. People are angry. Brexit will encourage that anger elsewhere. That’s exactly what Donald Trump is counting on as are the far-right parties of Europe. Canada is so far the exception. But the one per cent here might heed the warning. It’s not enough to be right. It’s all about how power is shared and how voters are respected. You miss that, and you lose the game.
Well, that is our show for this week. Thank you for joining us. MPs here in Ottawa are taking a break and so, so are we. We’re back in September. But, before we go, a little compilation of scenes from our popular segment ‘Plane Talk’, a segment we call: MPs Singing Badly in Planes. Have a great summer.
Rodger Cuzner: Gonna take a freight train, down to the station Lord. I don’t care where it goes. You know, Can’t You See?
Tom Clark: Can’t you see? You’re very good at that.
Rodger Cuzner: What a woman’s been doing to me.
Celina Caesar-Chavannes: Prince, I love him.
Tom Clark: Okay, and your favourite Prince song?
Tom Clark: But now I’m going to ask you.
Nathan Cullen: Yeah.
Tom Clark: Can you sing a little bit of it?
Nathan Cullen: No way man.
Tom Clark: Oh come on.
Nathan Cullen: You want me to rap?
Tom Clark: Yeah.
Nathan Cullen: That is such a—
Tom Clark: Oh come on.
Nathan Cullen: That is career suicide is what you’re asking.
Tom Clark: Just between you and me. Nobody else is around here.
Nathan Cullen: Let me fish of Cape St. Mary’s… And I just start crying.
Tony Clement: I have climbed the highest mountains. I have run two city walls only to be with you, Tom. Only to be with you. But I still haven’t found what I’m looking for.
Nathan Cullen: Because she’s the cheese and I’m the macaroni. And that is all I’m going to do for you.
Tom Clark: Ladies and Gentlemen, Erin O’Toole with Greased Lightning.
Erin O’Toole: Go Greased Lightning – you’re burning up the quarter mile. Greased Lightning—
Tom Clark: Go Greased Lightning. Sorry—
Erin O’Toole: Yeah, Greased Lightning – you’re coasting through the heat lap trial.
Tom Clark: Greased Lightning, go Greased Lightning.
Erin O’Toole: You are supreme.
Tom Clark: Supreme.
Erin O’Toole: The chicks’ll dream…
Tom Clark: The dream.
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