NDP, Tories in statistical dead heat: poll

OTTAWA – The New Democrats are continuing their rapid ascent in Canadian politics and are now statistically tied with the Conservatives, according to an exclusive Ipsos-Reid poll done for Global News.

The poll suggests if an election were held tomorrow, the NDP would receive 38 per cent of the popular vote, up three points since last month. While the numbers suggest a lead for the NDP, the difference is within the poll’s margin of error.

While the NDP numbers climb, support for the Conservatives dropped two points to 35 per cent. Support for the Liberals also dropped one point to 18 per cent.

But voters aren’t necessarily being wooed by the NDP’s policy and messaging, according to Ipsos-Reid CEO Darrell Bricker, who points to the lower numbers NDP leader Tom Mulcair has scored in recent polls.

“What this is, is whatever the counterpoint (to the Conservatives) is emerging,” he said. “People are saying if you want to defeat the Tories, you have to support the NDP.”

Bricker said the country is increasingly being divided along economic lines with those most concerned about growth siding with the Tories and those more concerned about social distribution backing the NDP.

While Canada is years away from an election, the trajectory does not bode well for the Conservatives, according to Ipsos-Reid CEO Darrell Bricker.

“It’s trouble and the reason it is trouble is when you are fishing in that more progressive pond, it’s a bit bigger than the ones that is on the other side,” he said.

More trouble may be brewing for the Conservatives in Ontario, where the NDP has a commanding lead at 40 per cent of public support, compared to 34 per cent for the Tories. The Liberals have 22 per cent support in Ontario, while the Green Party holds 4 per cent support.

Coupled with the 40 per cent support for the NDP in Quebec, compared to the 18 per cent for the Conservatives, the numbers paint a potential for the orange wave to extend beyond Quebec.

“What you are seeing again is the place of Quebec in national politics,” Bricker said. “They are now finding allies in other places, but most importantly in Ontario where the NDP now lead the Liberals and the Tories.”

The poll also shows minor growth among those who support the Bloc Quebecois, with the number rising one point to six per cent. National support for the Green party is at four per cent, while one in 10 voters remain undecided on supporting any party.

The online poll was done between June 20 and June 21, 2012 using a randomly-selected sample of 1,099 Canadians. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.