There’s the Cuban-American Texas Senator who was born in Calgary, the other Cuban-American Senator from Miami, the neurosurgeon, the libertarian opposed to government surveillance, the former Governors of Arkansas, Texas and New York, and the former telecom executive.
They’re likely to be joined by the guy whose father and brother both served as president, several other current or former governors, a failed presidential candidate and just maybe a real estate mogul who likes to fire people on his reality television show.
Welcome to the race for the 2016 Republican nomination, where at least 16 candidates are expected to run. At times an absurd three-ring circus, that feels a bit like The Hunger Games.
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But there’s one thing you need to understand: seeking the nomination is not always about winning the nomination. Some are planting the flag for their specific brand of conservatism, others are hoping to redeem their political careers and several are looking for the fame, profile and money that come with the national media spotlight.
“We have a system that has many rewards today that have nothing whatsoever to do with being president,” explains Larry Sabeto, Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “They can get a TV contract, they can get a book contract, they can increase their speaking fees.”
The problem is, on a field this crowded, the candidates have no choice but to jump up and down, kick and scream and do pretty much anything they can to get noticed.
For example, Senator Ted Cruz has all but legitimized conspiracy theories about a Pentagon training exercise being a precursor to the federal government imposing martial law in Texas. This actually played well to his base at home.
Senator Rand Paul, whose book argues that “the Republican brand sucks,” staged an 11-hour filibuster in the Senate to oppose government surveillance. It attracted days of high-profile press coverage, and the hashtag #StandWithRand did well on Twitter, though that may not be enough to keep his campaign from heading off the rails.
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Senator Lindsey Graham ramped up the hawkish tones ahead of his entry into the race. “If I’m president of the United States and you’re thinking about joining al-Qaeda or ISIL, I’m not gonna call a judge,” Graham told supporters. “I’m gonna call a drone and we will kill you.”
The thing is there’s no frontrunner for the Republicans. The party doesn’t have a Hillary Clinton who commands huge support. The candidates can say whatever they want. At this point they have to.
A recent Quinnipiac University Poll of Republicans shows a five-way tie for first place. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker each have 10 per cent support. Twenty per cent of Republicans remain undecided.
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None of that is deterring Republican hopefuls. Jeb Bush has a “major announcement” about his plans scheduled for June 15th, and Donald Trump is planning one of his own the next day.
Even if they’re not serious about winning, there’s serious pressure to perform, and there’s a deadline of just a few short weeks to make it happen. Fox News and CNN have decided they will limit the first two major debates to the Top 10 candidates, as ranked in national polls. After that, the candidates you’ve probably never heard of may not be heard from again.
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